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The Rate of Binary Black Hole Mergers Inferred from Advanced LIGO Observations Surrounding GW150914

Abbott, B. P. and Abbott, R. and Abernathy, M. R. and Adhikari, R. X. and Anderson, S. B. and Arai, K. and Araya, M. C. and Barayoga, J. C. and Barish, B. C. and Berger, B. K. and Billingsley, G. and Blackburn, J. K. and Bork, R. and Brooks, A. F. and Cahillane, C. and Callister, T. and Cepeda, C. B. and Chakraborty, R. and Chalermsongsak, T. and Chen, Y. and Couvares, P. and Coyne, D. C. and Dergachev, V. and Drever, R. W. P. and Ehrens, P. and Engels, W. and Etzel, T. and Gossan, S. E. and Gushwa, K. E. and Gustafson, E. K. and Hall, E. D. and Heptonstall, A. W. and Hodge, K. A. and Isi, M. and Kanner, J. B. and Kells, W. and Kondrashov, V. and Korth, W. Z. and Kozak, D. B. and Lazzarini, A. and Li, T. G. F. and Mageswaran, M. and Maros, E. and Martynov, D. V. and Marx, J. N. and McIntyre, G. and McIver, J. and Meshkov, S. and Pedraza, M. and Perreca, A. and Price , L. R. and Quintero, E. A. and Reitze, D. H. and Robertson, N. A. and Rollins, J. G. and Sachdev, S. and Sanchez, E. J. and Schmidt, P. and Shao, Z. and Singer, A. and Smith, N. D. and Smith, R. J. E. and Taylor, R. and Thirugnanasambandam, M. P. and Thorne, K. S. and Torrie, C. I. and Vajente, G. and Vallisneri, M. and Vass, S. and Wallace, L. and Weinstein, A. J. and Williams, R. D. and Wipf, C. C. and Yamamoto, H. and Zhang, L. and Zucker, M. E. and Zweizig, J. (2016) The Rate of Binary Black Hole Mergers Inferred from Advanced LIGO Observations Surrounding GW150914. Astrophysical Journal Letters, 833 (1). Art. No. L1. ISSN 2041-8205. http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20161011-161919040

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Abstract

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 d around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false alarm rate (FAR) of < 4.9 × 10^(−6) yr^(−1), yielding a p-value for GW150914 of < 2 × 10^(−7). Parameter estimation followup on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m_1, m_2) = (36^(+5)_(−4), 29^(+4)_(−4)) M_⊙ at redshift z = 0.09^(+0.03)_(−0.04) (median and 90\% credible range). Here we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the Universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2--53 Gpc^(−3) yr^(−1) (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13--600 Gpc^(−3) yr^(−1) depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2--600 Gpc^(−3) yr^(−1).


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1DOIArticle
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8205/833/1/L1PublisherArticle
https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.03842arXivDiscussion Paper
https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03939arXivSupplement
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Adhikari, R. X.0000-0002-5731-5076
Billingsley, G.0000-0002-4141-2744
Callister, T.0000-0001-9892-177X
Isi, M.0000-0001-8830-8672
Kanner, J. B.0000-0001-8115-0577
Korth, W. Z.0000-0003-3527-1348
Kozak, D. B.0000-0003-3118-8950
Weinstein, A. J.0000-0002-0928-6784
Williams, R. D.0000-0002-9145-8580
Zucker, M. E.0000-0002-2544-1596
Zweizig, J.0000-0002-1521-3397
Additional Information:© 2016 American Astronomical Society. Received 2016 February 12. Accepted 2016 September 19. Published 2016 November 30. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the United States National Science Foundation (NSF) for the construction and operation of the LIGO Laboratory and Advanced LIGO as well as the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom, the Max-Planck-Society (MPS), and the State of Niedersachsen/Germany for support of the construction of Advanced LIGO and construction and operation of the GEO600 detector. Additional support for Advanced LIGO was provided by the Australian Research Council. The authors gratefully acknowledge the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), the French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, for the construction and operation of the Virgo detector and the creation and support of the EGO consortium. The authors also gratefully acknowledge research support from these agencies as well as by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India, Department of Science and Technology, India, Science & Engineering Research Board (SERB), India, Ministry of Human Resource Development, India, the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, the Conselleria d'Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d'Educació, Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears, the National Science Centre of Poland, the European Commission, the Royal Society, the Scottish Funding Council, the Scottish Universities Physics Alliance, the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA), the Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO), the National Research Foundation of Korea, Industry Canada and the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation, the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council Canada, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Russian Foundation for Basic Research, the Leverhulme Trust, the Research Corporation, Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan and the Kavli Foundation. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the NSF, STFC, MPS, INFN, CNRS and the State of Niedersachsen/Germany for provision of computational resources. This article has been assigned the document number LIGO-P1500217.
Group:LIGO
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
NSFUNSPECIFIED
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)UNSPECIFIED
Max-Planck-Society (MPS)UNSPECIFIED
State of Niedersachsen/GermanyUNSPECIFIED
Australian Research CouncilUNSPECIFIED
Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN)UNSPECIFIED
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)UNSPECIFIED
Stichting voor Fundamenteel Onderzoek der Materie (FOM)UNSPECIFIED
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO)UNSPECIFIED
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (India)UNSPECIFIED
Department of Science and Technology (India)UNSPECIFIED
Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB)UNSPECIFIED
Ministry of Human Resource Development (India)UNSPECIFIED
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)UNSPECIFIED
Conselleria d’Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d’EducacióUNSPECIFIED
Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes BalearsUNSPECIFIED
National Science Centre (Poland)UNSPECIFIED
European CommissionUNSPECIFIED
Royal SocietyUNSPECIFIED
Scottish Funding CouncilUNSPECIFIED
Scottish Universities Physics AllianceUNSPECIFIED
Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA)UNSPECIFIED
Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO)UNSPECIFIED
National Research Foundation of KoreaUNSPECIFIED
Industry CanadaUNSPECIFIED
Ontario Ministry of Research and InnovationUNSPECIFIED
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)UNSPECIFIED
Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)UNSPECIFIED
Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e InovaçãoUNSPECIFIED
Russian Foundation for Basic ResearchUNSPECIFIED
Leverhulme TrustUNSPECIFIED
Research CorporationUNSPECIFIED
Ministry of Science and Technology (Taipei)UNSPECIFIED
Kavli FoundationUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:gravitational waves; stars: massive
Other Numbering System:
Other Numbering System NameOther Numbering System ID
LIGO DocumentLIGO-P1500217
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20161011-161919040
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20161011-161919040
Official Citation:B. P. Abbott et al 2016 ApJL 833 L1
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:71003
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Melissa Ray
Deposited On:12 Oct 2016 16:30
Last Modified:16 Nov 2017 23:52

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