Núñez, Lucas (2016) Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina. Political Behavior, 38 (4). pp. 899-920. ISSN 0190-9320. doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9340-1. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20161109-084022061
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Abstract
In this paper I study strategic voting behavior in the Argentine Senate election for the City of Buenos Aires in 2013. I estimate and analyze the voter transition matrix between the primary and general elections using a Bayesian hierarchical model for ecological inference, utilizing a rich data set of ballot box data. The results show that strategic behavior is not widespread among the electorate in Buenos Aires. In particular, at least 75 % of voters who had the opportunity to avoid vote wasting by behaving strategically did not. I also find high levels of vote wasting when analyzing other provinces during the same election cycle. These results suggest that these electorates might be composed of a mixture of voters with strategic and expressive motivations, where the expressive factions dominate.
Item Type: | Article | ||||||||||||
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Additional Information: | © 2016 Springer Science+Business Media New York. First Online: 21 April 2016. | ||||||||||||
Subject Keywords: | Strategic voting; Voter transitions; Bayesian models; Ecological inference | ||||||||||||
Issue or Number: | 4 | ||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1007/s11109-016-9340-1 | ||||||||||||
Record Number: | CaltechAUTHORS:20161109-084022061 | ||||||||||||
Persistent URL: | https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20161109-084022061 | ||||||||||||
Official Citation: | Núñez, L. Polit Behav (2016) 38: 899. doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9340-1 | ||||||||||||
Usage Policy: | No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided. | ||||||||||||
ID Code: | 71868 | ||||||||||||
Collection: | CaltechAUTHORS | ||||||||||||
Deposited By: | Tony Diaz | ||||||||||||
Deposited On: | 09 Nov 2016 17:39 | ||||||||||||
Last Modified: | 11 Nov 2021 04:52 |
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