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Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina

Núñez, Lucas (2016) Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina. Political Behavior, 38 (4). pp. 899-920. ISSN 0190-9320. doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9340-1.

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In this paper I study strategic voting behavior in the Argentine Senate election for the City of Buenos Aires in 2013. I estimate and analyze the voter transition matrix between the primary and general elections using a Bayesian hierarchical model for ecological inference, utilizing a rich data set of ballot box data. The results show that strategic behavior is not widespread among the electorate in Buenos Aires. In particular, at least 75 % of voters who had the opportunity to avoid vote wasting by behaving strategically did not. I also find high levels of vote wasting when analyzing other provinces during the same election cycle. These results suggest that these electorates might be composed of a mixture of voters with strategic and expressive motivations, where the expressive factions dominate.

Item Type:Article
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Additional Information:© 2016 Springer Science+Business Media New York. First Online: 21 April 2016.
Subject Keywords:Strategic voting; Voter transitions; Bayesian models; Ecological inference
Issue or Number:4
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20161109-084022061
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Official Citation:Núñez, L. Polit Behav (2016) 38: 899. doi:10.1007/s11109-016-9340-1
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:71868
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:09 Nov 2016 17:39
Last Modified:11 Nov 2021 04:52

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