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A Bayesian multinomial probit analysis of voter choice in Chile’s 2005 Presidential election

Alvarez, R. Michael and Katz, Gabriel (2008) A Bayesian multinomial probit analysis of voter choice in Chile’s 2005 Presidential election. Social Science Working Paper, 1287R. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished)

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The profound transformations in Chile’s party structure since 1989 has led several authors to examine the main cleavages shaping partisan divide and the impact of different factors on citizens’ party preferences. No study, however, has examined the influence of these factors on actual vote choice. We implement a Bayesian multinomial probit model to analyze voter choice in Chile’s 2005 election. We show that the authoritarian-democratic cleavage dominated voter choice, with socio-demographic variables playing a less important role. We also find that the presence of a second conservative candidate significantly affected citizens’ electoral behavior, increasing the support for the right and influencing the electoral outcome in a way that cannot be accounted for by analyses focused exclusively on citizens’ party identification.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
Alvarez, R. Michael0000-0002-8113-4451
Katz, Gabriel0000-0001-5970-2769
Additional Information:Revised version: Original: December 2007
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Subject Keywords:Bayesian multinomial probit, Chile; multi-candidate elections
Series Name:Social Science Working Paper
Issue or Number:1287R
Classification Code:JEL: J222, F88
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20170728-134342343
Persistent URL:
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:79546
Deposited By: Jacquelyn Bussone
Deposited On:02 Aug 2017 20:20
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:18

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