A Bayesian multinomial probit analysis of voter choice in Chile’s 2005 Presidential election

Abstract

The profound transformations in Chile’s party structure since 1989 has led several authors to examine the main cleavages shaping partisan divide and the impact of different factors on citizens’ party preferences. No study, however, has examined the influence of these factors on actual vote choice. We implement a Bayesian multinomial probit model to analyze voter choice in Chile’s 2005 election. We show that the authoritarian-democratic cleavage dominated voter choice, with socio-demographic variables playing a less important role. We also find that the presence of a second conservative candidate significantly affected citizens’ electoral behavior, increasing the support for the right and influencing the electoral outcome in a way that cannot be accounted for by analyses focused exclusively on citizens’ party identification.