The Impact of Race and Ideology on Voting: Does Race Still Matter?

Abstract

Why do barriers to minority legislative representation persist? This paper asks to what extent low levels of black office-holding are attributable to purely candidate race alone, as opposed to candidate ideology. Using a unique data set that contains information on candidates’ ideological positions coupled with extensive individual voting data, the paper tests whether candidate race exerts an independent and significant influence on vote choice that cannot be explained away by candidate ideology. Estimating a model of individual vote choice, I find that candidate race is largely irrelevant for most white voters when the effects of candidate ideology are taken into account. This is especially the case when the ideological distance between two candidates is large. It implies that when candidates are ideologically distinct, voters are unlikely to cross their party line to support a candidate whom they would not normally support, regardless of their willingness to vote for a black candidate. However, when candidates are ideologically close, white voters are more likely to vote for a white candidate who is pitted against a black candidate. Similarly, I find that the race of candidates works as a strong negative cue for white voters with no party affiliations. This suggests that white voters are likely to use candidate race as a voting cue when the party cue is absent or weak.