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Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations

Rundle, John B. and Rundle, Paul B. and Donnellan, Andrea and Fox, Geoffrey (2004) Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations. Earth, Planets and Space, 56 (8). pp. 761-771. ISSN 1880-5981. doi:10.1186/BF03353084.

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We discuss the problem of earthquake forecasting in the context of new models for the dynamics based on statistical physics. Here we focus on new, topologically realistic system-level approaches to the modeling of earthquake faults. We show that the frictional failure physics of earthquakes in these complex, topologically realistic models leads to self-organization of the statistical dynamics, and produces statistical distributions characterizing the activity, notably the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency distribution, that are similar to those observed in nature. In particular, we show that a parameterization of friction that includes a simple representation of a dynamic stress intensity factor is needed to organize the dynamics. We also show that the slip distributions for synthetic events obtained in the model are also similar to those observed in nature.

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Additional Information:© 2004 The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences (SGEPSS); The Seismological Society of Japan; The Volcanological Society of Japan; The Geodetic Society of Japan; The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Received: 1 December 2003; Accepted: 1 July 2004; Published: 24 June 2014. The authors would like to thank S. N. Ward and M. Hashimoto for careful and thoughtful reviews. This work has been supported by a grant from US Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences to the University of California, Davis DE-FG03-95ER14499 (JBR; PBR); and under additional funding from National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grants to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University of California, Davis, and the University of Indiana (JBR; PBR; AD; GCF).
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Department of Energy (DOE)DE-FG03-95ER14499
Subject Keywords:Earthquakes; simulations; forecasting; stress; interactions complex systems; scaling; systems
Issue or Number:8
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-093821000
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Official Citation:Rundle, J.B., Rundle, P.B., Donnellan, A. et al. Earth Planet Sp (2004) 56: 761.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:79920
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:08 Aug 2017 16:51
Last Modified:15 Nov 2021 17:51

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