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Post-Stratification without Population Level Information on the Post-Stratifying Variable, with Application to Political Polling

Reilly, Cavan and Gelman, Andrew and Katz, Jonathan N. (2000) Post-Stratification without Population Level Information on the Post-Stratifying Variable, with Application to Political Polling. Social Science Working Paper, 1091. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished) http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-143149807

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Abstract

We investigate the construction of more precise estimates of a collection of population means using information about a related variable in the context of repeated sample surveys. The method is illustrated using poll results concerning presidential approval rating (our related variable is political party identification). We use post-stratification to construct these improved estimates, but since we don't have population level information on the post-stratifying variable, we construct a model for the manner in which the post-stratifier develops over time. In this manner, we obtain more precise estimates without making possibly untenable assumptions about the dynamics of our variable of interest, the presidential approval rating.


Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Katz, Jonathan N.0000-0002-5287-3503
Additional Information:C. Reilly and A. Gelman thank the NSF for grant SBR-9708424 and Young Investigator Award DMS-9796129, and J. Katz thanks the John M. Olin Foundation. Published as Reilly, C., Gelman, A., & Katz, J. (2001). Poststratification without population level information on the poststratifying variable with application to political polling. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(453), 1-11.
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
NSFSBR-9708424
NSFDMS-9796129
John M. Olin FoundationUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:Bayesian Inference; Post-strati¯cation; Sample surveys; State-space models.
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-143149807
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-143149807
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:79957
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Jacquelyn Bussone
Deposited On:09 Aug 2017 18:38
Last Modified:09 Aug 2017 18:38

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