The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration

Abstract

Theory: We argue that support among California voters for Proposition 187 in 1994 was an example of cyclical nativism. This nativism was provoked primarily by California's economic downturn during the early 1990s. Hypotheses: We develop four specific hypotheses to explain how poor economic conditions in California and the consequent nativistic sentiments would result in support for Proposition 187: 1. voters who believe that California's economic condition is poor will be more likely to support Proposition 187; 2. voters who perceive themselves as being economically threatened by illegal immigrants will be more likely to support Proposition 187; 3. voters with lower levels of education are more economically vulnerable and will be more likely to support Proposition 187; 4. voters in Southern California feel more directly affected by illegal immigration and will be more likely to support Proposition 187. Methods: To test these hypotheses, we analyze voter exit poll data from the 1994 California election. We utilize a two-stage probit model to allow for the endogeneity which results from the politicization of illegal immigration during this election. Results: We find support for our hypotheses in the data. These findings cause us to conclude that nativism, fueled by economic conditions, was a salient factor leading many Californians to support Proposition 187.