An Aggregate Nested Logit Model of Political Participation

Abstract

This paper builds an aggregate nested model of political participation. We use a three-event model of voting behavior that incorporates the registration, turnout, and ballot completion decisions. The definitions of registration, turnout, and ballot completion used in this paper reflect the nested nature of the model. The concept of a nested model allows us to determine the elasticity of participation in total and for specific events within the model. We find that African-Americans register more often than non-Latino whites, turnout less for general elections, and complete less of the ballot. We also find that minorities do not vote in equal proportions to non-minorities even in those instances where they have the greatest chance of influencing the outcome, such as in primaries and mid-term election.