Bondarenko, Oleg and Bossaerts, Peter (1997) Expectations and Learning in Iowa. Social Science Working Paper, 989. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished) https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170815-145720985
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Abstract
We study the rationality of learning and the biases in expectations in the Iowa Experimental Markets. Using novel tests developed in Bossaerts [1996], learning in the Iowa winner-take-all markets is found to be in accordance with the rules of conditional probability (Bayes' law). Hence, participants correctly update their beliefs using the available information. There is evidence, however, that beliefs do not satisfy the restrictions of rational expectations that they reflect the factual distribution of outcomes.
| Item Type: | Report or Paper (Working Paper) | ||||||
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| Additional Information: | We thank Tom Rietz for sending us price and volume series from the Iowa; Experimental Market. Published as Bondarenko, O., & Bossaerts, P. (2000). Expectations and learning in Iowa. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(9), 1535-1555. | ||||||
| Group: | Social Science Working Papers | ||||||
| Subject Keywords: | Arrow-Debreu Securities, Experimental Markets, Rational Expectations Equilibrium, Bayesian Equilibrium, Consistent Beliefs, Market Efficiency, Learning, Martingales. | ||||||
| Series Name: | Social Science Working Paper | ||||||
| Issue or Number: | 989 | ||||||
| Classification Code: | JEL: C90, D84, G14 | ||||||
| Record Number: | CaltechAUTHORS:20170815-145720985 | ||||||
| Persistent URL: | https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170815-145720985 | ||||||
| Usage Policy: | No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided. | ||||||
| ID Code: | 80433 | ||||||
| Collection: | CaltechAUTHORS | ||||||
| Deposited By: | Jacquelyn Bussone | ||||||
| Deposited On: | 15 Aug 2017 22:26 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 03 Oct 2019 18:30 |
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