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Voter Choice in 1992: Economics, Issues, and Anger

Alvarez, R. Michael and Nagler, Jonathan (1994) Voter Choice in 1992: Economics, Issues, and Anger. Social Science Working Paper, 902. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished)

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This paper examines the voting behavior of individuals in the 1 992 presidential election. Employing a multinomial probit model we disprove several commonly held beliefs regarding the uniqueness of the election and the mood of the voters. We show emphatically the dominance of the economy as an issue, and that Clinton, not Perot, was the beneficiary of economic discontent. We show the limited influence of the candidates' efforts at choosing the optimal ideological position. We also demonstrate, via simulations of the outcome under hypothetical distributions of preferences, that the effect of the economy, while large, cannot by itself explain the magnitude of Bush's defeat. We also prove the surprisingly powerful impact of the candidates' positions on abortion on voters' choices. And we disprove the stylized fact that the 1 992 election was characterized by "angry voters." Finally, we show that Perot took more votes from Bush than he did from Clinton.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
Alvarez, R. Michael0000-0002-8113-4451
Additional Information:The data employed in this paper were gathered by the National Election Studies and made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Earlier versions of part of this research were presented at the Political Methodology Summer Conference, Tallahassee, Florida, July 1993, and at the Annual Meetings of the Southern Political Science Association, Savannah, Georgia, November 1993. We thank Larry Bartels and Brian Roberts for their contributions, and Abby Delman for her assistance.
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Series Name:Social Science Working Paper
Issue or Number:902
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20170821-141721076
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:80649
Deposited By: Jacquelyn Bussone
Deposited On:22 Aug 2017 16:33
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:18

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