Comparing absentee and precinct voters: A view over time

Abstract

This paper examines the trend in absentee voting over the last 30 years in California. With the liberalization of absentee voting laws and practices, an increase in the numbers of absentee voters quickly followed. Absentee voters have already demonstrated their ability to influence the outcomes of local elections. An open question is what will become of absentee voters in the future. If they are the model for “voting at home,” and if technological advances allow such, then the behavior of current absentee voters may be indicative of the future electorate. The increasing trend of voters opting for absentee ballots is analyzed by using GLS on a random-effects time-series cross-section model with county-level data. The focus is on identifying structural factors such as changing voter demographics that have influenced the decision of voters to cast absentee ballots. Thirty-three recent statewide elections in California are the basis for this analysis, covering the statewide primary and general elections from November 1962 through November 1994. We find that the impact of demographics and time trends on absentee voting differ between general and primary elections. In addition, we find that a 1977 liberalization law in California had the effect of accelerating the usage of the absentee format. Finally, we conclude that absentee and precinct voting are substitutes in general elections but complements in primary elections.