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Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence

Grether, David M. (1992) Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 17 (1). pp. 31-57. ISSN 0167-2681. doi:10.1016/0167-2681(92)90078-P.

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The psychological literature has identified a number of heuristics which individuals may use in making judgements or choices under uncertainty. Mathematically equivalent problems may be treated differently depending upon details of the decision setting. The results presented in this paper are consistent with those findings. In equivalent problems subjects appear to adopt different strategies in response to observing different data. Some experiments included financial incentives for accuracy and some did not. The majority of subjects in both treatments behaved reasonably, but of those lacking financial incentives a larger proportion gave absurd responses. This suggests that data from decision experiments in which no financial incentives were should be treated as possibly contaminated and statistical methods robust against outliers employed.

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Additional Information:© 1991 Elsevier B.V. Received August 1990, final version received March 1991.
Issue or Number:1
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20170906-070006950
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Official Citation:David M. Grether, Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 17, Issue 1, 1992, Pages 31-57, ISSN 0167-2681, (
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:81171
Deposited By: Ruth Sustaita
Deposited On:06 Sep 2017 17:25
Last Modified:15 Nov 2021 19:41

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