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Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective

Calvert, Randall Lee and Ferejohn, John Arthur (1981) Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective. Social Science Working Paper, 343. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished)

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It is agreed that the degree of association between the presidential and congressional election results is an important "Constitutional" variable. But the significance of this association depends on whether it is due to extraneous forces or to the personal attractiveness of the president. In this paper we give a statistical basis for determining the dependence of the vote for members of the House on the attractiveness of the presidential candidate. Further, it is shown that their dependence has decreased rather sharply and is currently at a historical low point.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
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Additional Information:Revised. Original dated to September 1980. Support for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation (SOC78-15413). Special thanks are due to Forest Nelson, Dave Grether, Morris Fiorina, Roderick Kiewiet, Morgan Kousser, and Bruce Cain. Published as Ferejohn, John A., and Randall L. Calvert. "Presidential coattails in historical perspective." American Journal of Political Science (1984): 127-146.
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Subject Keywords:Voting, Presidential elections, Political parties, Congressional voting, Presidential candidates, Parametric models, Political science, Gross national product, Congressional elections, Coefficients
Series Name:Social Science Working Paper
Issue or Number:343
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20171009-144428378
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:82228
Deposited By: Jacquelyn Bussone
Deposited On:09 Oct 2017 21:55
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 18:52

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