Dynamic and Static Components of Political Support in Britain

Abstract

This paper will consider a model of the British electorate which tries to account for both exogenous structural and endogenous political factors. The specification of the proposed model will be discussed in some detail and compared with the Butler and Stokes paradigm, which places almost exclusive emphasis on exogenous structural factors. The estimates obtained from a multivariate regression are then used to measure the relative impact of structural and political components on individual preferences and to draw inferences about the sources of electoral change in Britain. We will then confront the other half of the problem; namely, can a model which incorporates a significant endogenous component successfully account for electoral stability. The estimates of issue and lagged partisan components from a second set of regressions will form the basis of some observations about the stability of preferences across individuals in this model.