Candidate Preference under Uncertainty: An Expanded View of Rational Voting

Abstract

This paper examines how rational voters might choose between candidates under conditions of uncertainty. We shall emphasize two rational voting approaches--"defensive voting" and "credulous voting "--which have previously escaped notice. Additionally, we shall map out some of the implications of electoral uncertainty for empirical tests of the rational model and for the development of spatial theory. We shall not attempt to prove how citizens decide to vote, but we shall expand considerably the conventional interpretation of rational voting.