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Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Box-office Prophecy and Guess of Guesses

Court, David and Gillen, Benjamin and McKenzie, Jordi and Plott, Charles R. (2018) Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Box-office Prophecy and Guess of Guesses. Economic Theory, 65 (1). pp. 25-54. ISSN 0938-2259.

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Field tests were conducted on two newinformation aggregationmechanism designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and when applied under conditions where incentives for accuracy are unavailable still performs well against data.

Item Type:Article
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URLURL TypeDescription ItemEarlier version published as Social Science Working Paper 1412 ReadCube access
Additional Information:© 2017 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Received: 8 March 2016. Accepted: 24 January 2017. First Online: 16 February 2017. We thank the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the Lee Center; Australian Research Council (Linkage Grant LP110200336); University of Sydney; Australian Film, Television and Radio School (AFTRS); and the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science. The computer and software development skills of Hsing Yang Lee and Travis Maron are acknowledged. Their skills and dedication made the research possible. The comments of Matt Shum were very helpful. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00199-017-1036-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Formerly Social Science Working Paper 1412.
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationUNSPECIFIED
Australian Research CouncilLP110200336
Lee Center for Advanced Networking, CaltechUNSPECIFIED
University of SidneyUNSPECIFIED
Australian Film, Television, and Radio School (AFTRS)UNSPECIFIED
Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political ScienceUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:Information aggregation, Mechanism design, Experiment, Prediction market, Field test, Box office
Issue or Number:1
Classification Code:JEL: D01, D02, D03, D47, C9, C53, C70, C92, G14, G17
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20171102-152244151
Persistent URL:
Official Citation:Court, D., Gillen, B., McKenzie, J. et al. Econ Theory (2018) 65: 25.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:82916
Deposited By: Jacquelyn Bussone
Deposited On:03 Nov 2017 17:47
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 19:00

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