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Seismic and Aseismic Moment Budget and Implication for the Seismic Potential of the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault

Michel, Sylvain and Avouac, Jean-Philippe and Jolivet, Romain and Wang, Lifeng (2018) Seismic and Aseismic Moment Budget and Implication for the Seismic Potential of the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108 (1). pp. 19-38. ISSN 0037-1106. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171128-100137887

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Abstract

This study explores methods to assess the seismic potential of a fault based on geodetic measurements, geological information of fault‐slip rate, and seismicity data. The methods are applied to the Parkfield section along the San Andreas fault (SAF) at the transition zone between the SAF creeping segment in the north and the locked section of Cholame to the south, where M_w ∼6 earthquakes occurred every 24.5 yrs on average since the 1857 M_w 7.7 Fort Tejon earthquake. We compare the moment released by the known earthquakes and associated postseismic deformation with the moment deficit accumulated during the interseismic period derived from geodetic measurement of interseismic strain. We find that the recurring M_w 6 earthquakes are insufficient to balance the slip budget. We discuss and evaluate various possible scenarios which might account for the residual moment deficit and implications of the possible magnitude and return period of M_w >6 earthquakes on that fault segment. The most likely explanation is that this fault segment hosts M_w 6.5–7.5 earthquakes, with a return period of 140–300 yrs. Such events could happen as independent earthquakes in conjunction with ruptures of the Carrizo plain segment of the SAF. We show how the results from our analysis can be formally incorporated in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment assuming various magnitude–frequency distribution and renewal time models.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160290DOIArticle
https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article-standard/doi/10.1785/0120160290/522795/seismic-and-aseismic-moment-budget-and-implicationPublisherArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Michel, Sylvain0000-0001-7878-6603
Avouac, Jean-Philippe0000-0002-3060-8442
Jolivet, Romain0000-0002-9896-3651
Additional Information:© 2017 Seismological Society of America. Manuscript received 15 September 2016; Published Online 28 November 2017. Data and Resources: The Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) catalog was searched using http://www.quake.geo.berkeley.edu/anss/catalog-search.html (last accessed February 2015). The authors would like to thank Adriano Gualandi for insightful discussions and for providing the recurrence time equation taking account Båth’s law (equation 10). The authors thank two anonymous reviewers for their detailed and constructive criticisms which helped improve our study substantially. The authors thank Alex Copley, James Jackson, and Andy Howell for discussions. Some of the figures were created using the Generic Mapping Tool (GMT) software (Wessel and Smith, 1998).
Group:Seismological Laboratory
Issue or Number:1
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20171128-100137887
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171128-100137887
Official Citation:Sylvain Michel, Jean‐Philippe Avouac, Romain Jolivet, Lifeng Wang; Seismic and Aseismic Moment Budget and Implication for the Seismic Potential of the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ; 108 (1): 19–38. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160290
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:83492
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:28 Nov 2017 18:09
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:18

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