Steps | Parameters Used | |
---|---|---|
Calculation of PBudget | 1. Choose variables (Mmax, τmax) | Mmax, τmax |
2. Assume Båth’s law: ΔM between the mainshock and the larger aftershock | B(= 0 or 1) | |
3. Assume contributions from aftershocks and background seismicity | b | |
4. Assume aseismic contribution | α | |
5. Calculate PBudget (Mmax, τmax) | ||
Calculation of PHist | 1. Choose variables (Mmax, τmax) | Mmax, τmax |
2a. Assume Poisson model | τ | |
2b. Assume renewal model | τ, αBPT | |
3a. Approach 1: Assume the largest earthquake follows the GR law determined by known seismicity | a, b | |
3b. Approach 2: The largest earthquake does not need to follow the GR law determined by known seismicity. Only the duration (thist) of the catalog matters | thist | |
4. Calculate PHist | Equations (13) and (15) of the main article | |
Calculation of PG | Equations (18) of the main article |
BPT, Brownian passage time; GR, Gutenberg–Richter.
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