Electronic Supplement to
Seismic and Aseismic Moment Budget and Implication for the Seismic Potential of the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault

by Sylvain Michel, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Romain Jolivet, and Lifeng Wang

Table S1. Flowchart of Methodology

	Steps	Parameters Used
Calculation of PBudget	1. Choose variables (Mmax, τmax)	Mmax, τmax
	2. Assume Båth’s law: ΔM between the mainshock and the larger aftershock	B(= 0 or 1)
	3. Assume contributions from aftershocks and background seismicity	b
	4. Assume aseismic contribution	α
	5. Calculate PBudget (Mmax, τmax)	m˙0
Calculation of PHist	1. Choose variables (Mmax, τmax)	Mmax, τmax
	2a. Assume Poisson model	τ
	2b. Assume renewal model	τ, αBPT
	3a. Approach 1: Assume the largest earthquake follows the GR law determined by known seismicity	a, b
	3b. Approach 2: The largest earthquake does not need to follow the GR law determined by known seismicity. Only the duration (thist) of the catalog matters	thist
	4. Calculate PHist	Equations (13) and (15) of the main article
Calculation of PG		Equations (18) of the main article

BPT, Brownian passage time; GR, Gutenberg–Richter.

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