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Constituency influence: A generalized model and its implications for statistical studies of roll-call behavior

Fiorina, Morris P. (1975) Constituency influence: A generalized model and its implications for statistical studies of roll-call behavior. Political Methodology, 2 (3). pp. 249-266. ISSN 0162-2021.

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This paper uses a simple analytical model to illustrate the consequences of statistical model misspecification. The first part of the article presents and extends an earlier model of constituency influence on legislative roll-call voting. Unfortunately, the implications of this extended model have no clear empirical interpretations. This fact is turned to advantage, however, by using the model to generate an artificial data set which is then analyzed within a design common to the area of roll-call analysis. Although the data theoretically represent nothing but constituency influence, the usual analysis does not uncover that fact. Moreover, the usual analysis may produce serious errors in conclusions about the relative influence of party and constituency. The importance of the paper lies less in the general example of model misspecification than in the application to a substantive area where misspecification probably is both pervasive and productive of mistaken inferences.

Item Type:Article
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Additional Information:© 1975 Cambridge University Press. Published on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology. Formerly SSWP 45.
Subject Keywords:Voting, Constituents, Political parties, Reelection, Political campaigns, Statistical models, Modeling, Congressional voting, Mathematical models, Voting behavior
Issue or Number:3
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20171205-153211714
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:83707
Deposited By: Jacquelyn Bussone
Deposited On:02 Jan 2018 21:57
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 19:09

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