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Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers

Amerstorfer, T. and Möstl, C. and Hess, P. and Temmer, M. and Mays, M. L. and Reiss, M. A. and Lowrance, P. and Bourdin, Ph.-A. (2018) Ensemble Prediction of a Halo Coronal Mass Ejection Using Heliospheric Imagers. Space Weather, 16 (7). pp. 784-801. ISSN 1542-7390. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180607-142702185

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Abstract

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and its heliospheric imagers (HIs) have provided us the possibility to enhance our understanding of the interplanetary propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). HI‐based methods are able to forecast arrival times and speeds at any target and use the advantage of tracing a CME's path of propagation up to 1 AU and beyond. In our study, we use the ELEvoHI model for CME arrival prediction together with an ensemble approach to derive uncertainties in the modeled arrival time and impact speed. The CME from 3 November 2010 is analyzed by performing 339 model runs that are compared to in situ measurements from lined‐up spacecraft MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging and STEREO‐B. Remote data from STEREO‐B showed the CME as halo event, which is comparable to an HI observer situated at L1 and observing an Earth‐directed CME. A promising and easy approach is found by using the frequency distributions of four ELEvoHI output parameters, drag parameter, background solar wind speed, initial distance, and speed. In this case study, the most frequent values of these outputs lead to the predictions with the smallest errors. Restricting the ensemble to those runs, we are able to reduce the mean absolute arrival time error from 3.5 ± 2.6 to 1.6 ± 1.1 hr at 1 AU. Our study suggests that L1 may provide a sufficient vantage point for an Earth‐directed CME, when observed by HI, and that ensemble modeling could be a feasible approach to use ELEvoHI operationally.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017SW001786DOIArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Amerstorfer, T.0000-0001-9024-6706
Möstl, C.0000-0001-6868-4152
Temmer, M.0000-0003-4867-7558
Mays, M. L.0000-0001-9177-8405
Reiss, M. A.0000-0002-6362-5054
Lowrance, P.0000-0001-8014-0270
Bourdin, Ph.-A.0000-0002-6793-601X
Additional Information:© 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Received 29 NOV 2017; Accepted 26 MAY 2018; Accepted article online 7 JUN 2018; Published online 2 JUL 2018. Support by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): P26174‐N27 is acknowledged by T. A. and C. M. The presented work has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007‐2013) under grant agreement 606692 (HELCATS). This work was completed while P. H. held an NRC postdoctoral fellowship at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. M. T. acknowledges the support by the FFG/ASAP Programme under grant 859729 (SWAMI). M. L. M. acknowledges the support of NASA LWS grant NNX15AB80G. M. A. R. acknowledges the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): J4160‐N27. This work is based in part on observations made with the Spitzer Space Telescope, which is operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with NASA. This research has made use of SunPy, an open‐source and free community‐developed solar data analysis package written in Python (The SunPy Community et al., 2015) and was carried out with the free Jupyter Anaconda environment. The WSA model was developed by N. Arge now at NASA/GSFC, and the ENLIL Model was developed by D. Odstrčil now at GMU. ENLIL‐WSA simulation results have been provided by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at the Goddard Space Flight Center through their public Runs on Request system (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/). STEREO/HI was developed by a consortium comprising Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, and University of Birmingham (UK), Centre Spatiale de Liége (Belgium), and the Naval Research Laboratory (USA). The authors acknowledge the UK Solar System Data Centre for provision of the STEREO/HI data. We are grateful to the reviewers for their constructive input.
Group:Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC)
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
FWF Der WissenschaftsfondsP26174-N27
European Research Council (ERC)606692
National Research CouncilUNSPECIFIED
FFG/ASAP859729
NASANNX15AB80G
FWF Der WissenschaftsfondsJ4160-N27
NASA/JPL/CaltechUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:space weather; coronal mass ejections; interplanetary coronal mass ejections; heliospheric imaging; prediction; ensemble modeling
Issue or Number:7
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20180607-142702185
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20180607-142702185
Official Citation:Amerstorfer, T., Möstl, C., Hess, P., Temmer, M., Mays, M. L., Reiss, M. A., et al. (2018). Ensemble prediction of a halo coronal mass ejection using heliospheric imagers. Space Weather, 16, 784–801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017SW001786
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:86897
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:08 Jun 2018 14:44
Last Modified:26 Feb 2020 18:48

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