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Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables

Porter, Keith A. and Beck, James L. and Shaikhutdinov, Rustem V. (2002) Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables. Earthquake Spectra, 18 (4). pp. 719-743. ISSN 8755-2930. doi:10.1193/1.1516201.

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This paper examines the question of which sources of uncertainty most strongly affect the repair cost of a building in a future earthquake. Uncertainties examined here include spectral acceleration, ground-motion details, mass, damping, structural force-deformation behavior, building-component fragility, contractor costs, and the contractor's overhead and profit. We measure the variation (or swing) of the repair cost when each basic input variable except one is taken at its median value, and the remaining variable is taken at its 10th and at its 90th percentile. We perform this study using a 1960s highrise nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building. Repair costs are estimated using the assembly-based vulnerability (ABV) method. We find that the top three contributors to uncertainty are assembly capacity (the structural response at which a component exceeds some damage state), shaking intensity (measured here in terms of damped elastic spectral acceleration, Sa), and details of the ground motion with a given Sa.

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Additional Information:©2002 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (Received February 25, 2002; accepted August 14, 2002) Portions of this research were funded by CUREE-Kajima Phase IV Joint Research Project. This work was also supported by the Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program of the National Science Foundation under Award Number EEC-9701568. Both sources of support are gratefully acknowledged. Ray Young and John Machin of Ray Young & Associates provided the unit-cost estimates as well as valuable advice regarding cost-estimation practice. Alice Rissman of Rissman and Rissman Associates provided copyrights to the architectural and structural drawings. Carlos Rocha of Rocha Nueze & Associates met with the authors to discuss his seismic retrofit design for the demonstration building. The authors thank these individuals for their contribution.
Subject Keywords:earthquakes; structural engineering; building; uncertain systems; cost-benefit analysis; concrete
Issue or Number:4
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:PORes02
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:8755
Deposited By: Archive Administrator
Deposited On:13 Sep 2007
Last Modified:08 Nov 2021 20:52

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