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Change in household fuels dominates the decrease in PM_(2.5) exposure and premature mortality in China in 2005–2015

Zhao, Bin and Zheng, Haotian and Wang, Shuxiao and Smith, Kirk R. and Lu, Xi and Aunan, Kristin and Gu, Yu and Wang, Yuan and Ding, Dian and Xing, Jia and Fu, Xiao and Yang, Xudong and Liou, Kuo-Nan and Hao, Jiming (2018) Change in household fuels dominates the decrease in PM_(2.5) exposure and premature mortality in China in 2005–2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115 (49). pp. 12401-12406. ISSN 0027-8424. PMCID PMC6298076. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20181119-151600569

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Abstract

To tackle the severe fine particle (PM_(2.5)) pollution in China, the government has implemented stringent control policies mainly on power plants, industry, and transportation since 2005, but estimates of the effectiveness of the policy and the temporal trends in health impacts are subject to large uncertainties. By adopting an integrated approach that combines chemical transport simulation, ambient/household exposure evaluation, and health-impact assessment, we find that the integrated population-weighted exposure to PM_(2.5) (IPWE) decreased by 47% (95% confidence interval, 37–55%) from 2005 [180 (146–219) μg/m^3] to 2015 [96 (83–111) μg/m^3]. Unexpectedly, 90% (86–93%) of such reduction is attributed to reduced household solid-fuel use, primarily resulting from rapid urbanization and improved incomes rather than specific control policies. The IPWE due to household fuels for both cooking and heating decreased, but the impact of cooking is significantly larger. The reduced household-related IPWE is estimated to avoid 0.40 (0.25–0.57) million premature deaths annually, accounting for 33% of the PM_(2.5)-induced mortality in 2015. The IPWE would be further reduced by 63% (57–68%) if the remaining household solid fuels were replaced by clean fuels, which would avoid an additional 0.51 (0.40–0.64) million premature deaths. Such a transition to clean fuels, especially for heating, requires technology innovation and policy support to overcome the barriers of high cost of distribution systems, as is recently being attempted in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. We suggest that household-fuel use be more highly prioritized in national control policies, considering its effects on PM_(2.5) exposures.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812955115DOIArticle
https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1812955115/-/DCSupplementalPublisherSupporting Information
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6298076PubMed CentralArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Zhao, Bin0000-0001-8438-9188
Wang, Shuxiao0000-0001-9727-1963
Smith, Kirk R.0000-0002-0439-1120
Lu, Xi0000-0002-5063-3776
Gu, Yu0000-0002-3412-0794
Wang, Yuan0000-0001-6657-8401
Additional Information:© 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND). Contributed by Kirk R. Smith, October 10, 2018 (sent for review July 27, 2018; reviewed by Gregory R. Carmichael and Zifa Wang). PNAS published ahead of print November 19, 2018. This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 21625701 and 21521064; and National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control Grant DQGG0301. B.Z., Y.G., and K.-N.L. are supported by NSF Grant AGS-1701526. K.A. is supported by the project of “Airborne: Pollution, Climate Change, and Visions of Sustainability in China” at the Center for Advanced Studies, Norway. Our work is completed on the “Explorer 100” cluster system of Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology. Author contributions: B.Z. and S.W. designed research; B.Z., H.Z., and X.F. developed emission inventory; B.Z., H.Z., and D.D. performed model simulation; K.A. led the development of the IPWE metric; B.Z., S.W., K.R.S., X.L., K.A., Y.G., and Y.W. analyzed data; and B.Z., S.W., K.R.S., X.L., K.A., Y.G., Y.W., J.X., X.Y., K.-N.L., and J.H. wrote the paper. Reviewers: G.R.C., University of Iowa; and Z.W., Chinese Academy of Sciences. The authors declare no conflict of interest. This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1812955115/-/DCSupplemental.
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
National Natural Science Foundation of China21625701
National Natural Science Foundation of China21521064
National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution ControlDQGG0301
NSFAGS-1701526
Center for Advanced Studies (Norway)UNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:health impact; household air pollution; ambient air pollution; integrated exposure assessment; cooking
Issue or Number:49
PubMed Central ID:PMC6298076
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20181119-151600569
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20181119-151600569
Official Citation:Change in household fuels dominates the decrease in PM2.5 exposure and premature mortality in China in 2005–2015. Bin Zhao, Haotian Zheng, Shuxiao Wang, Kirk R. Smith, Xi Lu, Kristin Aunan, Yu Gu, Yuan Wang, Dian Ding, Jia Xing, Xiao Fu, Xudong Yang, Kuo-Nan Liou, Jiming Hao. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 115 (49) 12401-12406; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1812955115
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:91035
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:19 Nov 2018 23:27
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:19

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