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Bayesian models of design based on intuition

Chandy, K. M. (1976) Bayesian models of design based on intuition. In: Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on Software engineering. IEEE Computer Society Press , Los Alamitos, CA, pp. 281-285.

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Most computer system designers use a great deal of intuition in the design process. Intuition is often used to handle uncertainty in design parameters. Since uncertainty seems to be intrinsic to most design problems it follows that designers will continue to rely on intuition or “sound engineering judgement”. This paper attempts to use Bayesian Decision Theory to explore the possibility of setting up a structure and theory for making design decisions in the computer system design environment while explicitly taking the intuitive nature of many design decisions into account. We shall focus attention on a particular problem in distributed data base design in which the designer must use his intuition to estimate the load on the system which he is designing. Similar Bayesian approaches could be used in other design problems.

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Additional Information:© 1976 IEEE Computer Society Press. The author would like to thank the State of Texas Department of Mental Health and Mental Retardation for suggesting the problem. He would also like to thank Professor James C. Browne of the University of Texas at Austin for his help. Thanks are also due to IBM T.J. Watson Research Center for the time spent on this problem.
Subject Keywords:design, analysis, Bayesian decision theory, intuition, uncertainty, probability theory, distributed data base systems, dynamic programming, optimization
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20190111-154850666
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:92229
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:12 Jan 2019 05:55
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 20:42

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