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Frequency violations from random disturbances: an MCMC approach

Moriarty, John and Vogrinc, Jure and Zocca, Alessandro (2018) Frequency violations from random disturbances: an MCMC approach. In: 2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC). IEEE , Piscataway, NJ, pp. 1598-1603. ISBN 978-1-5386-1395-5.

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The frequency stability of power systems is increasingly challenged by various types of disturbance. In particular, the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources is increasing the variability of power generation while reducing system inertia against disturbances. In this paper we explore how this could give rise to rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) violations. Correlated and non -Gaussian power disturbances, such as may arise from renewable generation, have been shown to be significant in power system security analysis. We therefore introduce ghost sampling which, given any unconditional distribution of disturbances, efficiently produces samples conditional on a violation occurring. Our goal is to address questions such as “which generator is most likely to be disconnected due to a RoCoF violation?” or “what is the probability of having simultaneous RoCoF violations, given that a violation occurs?”

Item Type:Book Section
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URLURL TypeDescription Paper
Zocca, Alessandro0000-0001-6585-4785
Additional Information:© 2018 IEEE. JM and JV were supported by EPSRC grant EP/P002625/1. AZ is supported by NWO Rubicon grant 680.50.1529. The authors thank L. Guo, J. Bialek, and S.H. Low for helpful discussions on the model.
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)EP/P002625/1
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO)680.50.1529
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20190204-103342051
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Official Citation:J. Moriarty, J. Vogrinc and A. Zocca, "Frequency violations from random disturbances: an MCMC approach," 2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), FL, USA, 2018, pp. 1598-1603. doi: 10.1109/CDC.2018.8619304
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:92624
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:04 Feb 2019 21:01
Last Modified:16 Nov 2021 03:52

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