Post-Stratification without Population Level Information on the Post-Stratifying Variable, with Application to Political Polling
We investigate the construction of more precise estimates of a collection of population means using information about a related variable in the context of repeated sample surveys. The method is illustrated using poll results concerning presidential approval rating (our related variable is political party identification). We use post-stratification to construct these improved estimates, but since we don't have population level information on the post-stratifying variable, we construct a model for the manner in which the post-stratifier develops over time. In this manner, we obtain more precise estimates without making possibly untenable assumptions about the dynamics of our variable of interest, the presidential approval rating.
Additional InformationC. Reilly and A. Gelman thank the NSF for grant SBR-9708424 and Young Investigator Award DMS-9796129, and J. Katz thanks the John M. Olin Foundation. Published as Reilly, C., Gelman, A., & Katz, J. (2001). Poststratification without population level information on the poststratifying variable with application to political polling. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(453), 1-11.
Submitted - sswp1091.pdf