Flip-Flopping, Primary Visibility and the Selection of Candidates
We present an incomplete information model of two-stage elections in which candidates can choose different platforms in primaries and general elections. Voters do not directly observe the chosen platforms, but infer the candidates' ideologies from observing candidates' campaigns. The ability of voters to detect candidates' types depends on the visibility of the race. This model captures two patterns: the post-primary moderation effect, in which candidates pander to the party base during the primary and shift to the center in the general election; and the divisive-primary effect, which refers to the detrimental effect of hard-fought primaries on a party's generalelection prospects.
I would like to thank Andrew Schotter and Alessandro Lizzeri for the invaluable help and encouragement they have provided during the course of this project. I thank Alex Agranov for suggesting the idea for this paper. I also thank Matt Elliott, Elliott Ash, Mark Dean, Matthew Embrey, Guillaume Frechette, Alessandro Gavazza, Anna Ingster, Daniel Martin, Rebecca Morton, Nicola Persico, Pietro Ortoleva, Debraj Ray, Ofer Setty, Chloe Tergiman, Emanuel Vespa, and seminar participants at New York University for their useful comments. An online appendix and author's disclosure site are available at https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mic.20130036 Formerly SSWP 1369
Published - sswp1369_-_published.pdf