Published November 27, 2025 | Version Accepted Manuscript
Journal Article Open

Gross primary production variations dominate the response of Indian terrestrial carbon fluxes to global climatic phenomena

  • 1. ROR icon Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
  • 2. ROR icon Ames Research Center
  • 3. ROR icon Colorado State University
  • 4. ROR icon Jet Propulsion Lab
  • 5. ROR icon California Institute of Technology
  • 6. ROR icon Goddard Space Flight Center
  • 7. ROR icon Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
  • 8. ROR icon Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
  • 9. ROR icon Nanjing University
  • 10. ROR icon University of New Hampshire
  • 11. CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing, China
  • 12. ROR icon Johns Hopkins University
  • 13. ROR icon University of Maryland, College Park

Abstract

A better understanding of country-scale anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and natural flux estimates and the carbon-climate feedback, is critical in formulating national climate policies to attain net zero emissions. Here, we use the atmospheric carbon dioxide column observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 satellite to unravel the response of the Indian land biosphere to global climatic phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. An ensemble of global flux inverse models constrained by satellite observations indicates a reduction in carbon uptake by the Indian land biosphere during El Niño and an enhanced uptake during La Niña and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. We find that the large Gross Primary Production variations, as compared to total ecosystem respiration, determined the response of flux variability to climatic phenomena. The carbon-climate constraints imposed by satellite observations over India help elucidate how biospheric uptake may offset anthropogenic emissions in the future.

Copyright and License

© 2025, The Author(s). Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Acknowledgement

E.S.R. acknowledges fellowship support from the DST INSPIRE program. S.P., M.J., and J.L.  acknowledge computational support by the NASA High-End Computing Program through the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at NASA Ames Research Center. S.P. acknowledges computing resources from the high-performance computing cluster PADUM at IIT Delhi and computing facilities obtained through the IIT Delhi New Faculty Seed grant. J.X. was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) (Macrosystem Biology and NEON-Enabled Science program: DEB-2017870). Work of J.L. was conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). Additionally, J.L. acknowledges the funding support from NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory Science Team program (NNH23ZDA001N-OCOST) and Carbon Monitoring System program (NNH22ZDA001N-CMS).

Data Availability

The ObsPack data (obspack_co2_1_OCO2MIP_v4.1_2022-07-12), OCO-2 10-second average v10 CO2 retrieval data (OCO2_b10c_10sec_GOOD_r7), fossil fuel emissions data (DOI:10.5281/zenodo.4470072), and OCO-2 version 10 MIP extension (2015-2021) ensemble model outputs (OCO-2 v10 MIP Extension (2015-2021) fluxes) are publicly accessible from https://www.gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/OCO2_v10mip/download.php. The MODIS NDVI data is available at https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/mod13.php. The OCO-2 SIF (GOSIF) data can be accessed from https://data.globalecology.unh.edu/data/GOSIF_v2/. The monthly ERA5 reanalysis temperature and precipitation data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7 (Accessed on 24-07-2024). The Global Modeling and Assimilation MERRA-2 data set is obtained at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (https://doi.org/10.5067/8S35XF81C28F). FluxSat GPP and GOSIF GPP products are provided at https://avdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/tmp/FluxSat_GPP/ and http://data.globalecology.unh.edu/data/GOSIF-GPP_v2/, respectively. GLDAS v2.1 soil moisture and net shortwave radiation used in this study are available at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/GLDAS_NOAH10_M_2.1/summary?keywords=GLDAS. Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2) are available at https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/. Dipole Mode Index used in this study are available at https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/. Fire CO2 emission products from QFED and GFED are available at http://geoschemdata.wustl.edu/ExtData/HEMCO/QFED/v2023-05/ and http://geoschemdata.wustl.edu/ExtData/HEMCO/GFED4/v2023-03/ respectively. The monthly ERA-5 reanalysis sea surface temperature data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7 (Accessed on 20-07-2025). The processed datasets are publicly available in a Zenodo archive and can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17536380.

Code Availability

All model information, codes, results, and evaluation details of the OCO-2 MIP project are available at https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/OCO2_v10mip/download.php. The codes for reproducing the figures are available in a Zenodo archive and can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17536422.

Supplemental Material

Supplemental material for “Gross primary production variations dominate the response of Indian terrestrial carbon fluxes to global climatic phenomena”: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs43247-025-03013-6/MediaObjects/43247_2025_3013_MOESM2_ESM.pdf

Files

s43247-025-03013-6_reference.pdf

Files (10.3 MB)

Name Size Download all
md5:1721563d9bb5aac30ea16beda0ba925f
4.9 MB Preview Download
md5:8740e0f610888f6d548a00085a90e981
5.4 MB Preview Download

Additional details

Related works

Describes
Journal Article: https://rdcu.be/eS17x (URL)

Funding

Division of Environmental Biology
(Macrosystem Biology and NEON-Enabled Science program DEB-2017870
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Orbiting Carbon Observatory Science Team program NNH23ZDA001N-OCOST
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Carbon Monitoring System program NNH22ZDA001N-CMS

Dates

Accepted
2025-11-10
Accepted

Caltech Custom Metadata

Caltech groups
Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences (GPS)
Publication Status
Accepted