Population Pressure and Fertility Changes in Costa Rica, 1906-1970
The demographic history of Costa Rica in the twentieth century is examined in the context of a model of dynamic adjustment to changing child survival probabilities and micro-level population pressure. Micro-level population pressure is viewed as resulting from a couple having children beyond its current optimal family size, given current prices and its income. Cantonal regression analyses for the time periods, 1927-1950, 1951-1953 to 1961-1963, and 1961-1963 to 1970 lend support to the hypothesis that the secular fertility decline in Costa Rica is a dynamic adjustment to high completed family size and increasing child survival probabilities.
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Population Association of America annual meetings in New York, April 19, 1974. The authors wish to thank E. David Emery, David Grether, Barbara Janowitz, T. Paul Shultz, and anonymous reviewers for their comments on earlier drafts; Miguel Gomez, Ricardo Jimenez, Director of C.E.S.P.O., and Fernando Naranjo for their valuable advice and assistance; and Robert Voertman for allowing the authors to use his unpublished materials.
Submitted - sswp109.pdf