Published August 2005 | Version Submitted
Working Paper Open

Proper Scoring Rules for General Decision Models

Abstract

On the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, we demonstrate that proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors). We also show that if an agent whose behavior conforms to the multiple priors model is faced with a scoring rule for a subjective expected utility agent, she will always announce a probability belonging to her set of priors; moreover, for any prior in the set, there exists such a scoring rule inducing the agent to announce that prior.

Additional Information

I would like to thank Federico Echenique, PJ Healy, and John Ledyard for useful comments and suggestions. All errors are my own.

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Identifiers

Eprint ID
79958
Resolver ID
CaltechAUTHORS:20170808-144357937

Dates

Created
2017-08-09
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Updated
2020-03-09
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Caltech Custom Metadata

Caltech groups
Social Science Working Papers
Series Name
Social Science Working Paper
Series Volume or Issue Number
1231