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Influenza activity and regional
mortality for non‑small cell lung
cancer
Connor J. Kinslow
1
, Yuankun
Wang
2
, Yi Liu
1
, Konstantin M.
Zuev
2,3
, Kunal R.
Chaudhary
1
,
Tony J. C. Wang
1,4
, Ciro Donalek
2
, Michael
Amori
2
& Simon K.
Cheng
1,4
*
Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States and worldwide. While influenza
illness is known to be particularly dangerous for frail and elderly patients, the relationship between
influenza illness and outcomes in patients with cancer remains largely unknown. The Surveillance,
Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried to identify patients with non‑small cell
lung cancer (NSCLC) diagnosed between 2009 and 2015. Influenza‑like illness (ILI) activity, provided
by the Outpatient Influenza‑like Illness Surveillance Network of the Center of Disease for Control
and Prevention, was merged with the SEER dataset on the state‑month level. Regional monthly
mortality rates were compared during low versus high flu months in this ecological cohort study.
202,485 patients with NSCLC from 13 SEER
‑reporting states were included in the analysis. 53 of 1049
state‑months (5.1%) had high flu activity. Monthly mortality rates during low and high flu months
were 0.041 (95% CI 0.041–0.042) and 0.051 (95% CI 0.050–0.053), respectively (RR 1.24 [95% CI
1.21–1.27]). The association between ILI activity and mortality was observed at the individual state
level and in all clinical and regional subgroups. Increased regional influenza activity is associated with
higher mortality rates for patients with NSCLC. Vaccine‑directed initiatives and increased awareness
amongst providers will be necessary to address the growing but potentially preventable burden of
influenza‑related lung cancer deaths in the U.S.
Each year, influenza affects approximately 15% of the U.S. population, leading to more than 334,000 hospitaliza-
tions and 41,000 deaths, with $26.7 billion direct and indirect associated
costs
1
. Though influenza is known to
be particularly devastating for frail and elderly
patients
2
,
3
, data to support vulnerability in patients with cancer
is much less robust. Patients with cancer are often immunocompromised due to treatment with chemotherapy
or their underlying disease and, therefore, more susceptible to microbial infections. Patients with cancer are
assumed to be at high risk of influenza-related morbidity and
mortality
4
, but the majority of data pertaining to
influenza-related outcomes is derived from older and smaller retrospective case
series
5
–
11
.
The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice (ACIP) and the American Society for Clinical Oncol-
ogy (ASCO) recommend annual influenza vaccination for all individuals, including those with cancer or those
receiving
chemotherapy
4
,
12
. However, it is recognized that there is a lack of level 1 and retrospective evidence
to support this
recommendation
12
,
13
. Influenza vaccination rates remain low amongst patients with cancer and
their family members in the U.S. and worldwide, largely due to an absence of recommendations by individual
treating
providers
1
,
14
–
16
. Reasons for the lack of provider initiative include a lack of awareness of the seriousness
of influenza infection in patients with cancer and a lack of professional guidelines or awareness of professional
guidelines
17
–
19
. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of influenza on the outcomes of patients with
cancer would allow researchers and physicians to better access risks of exposure and the potential benefits of
vaccination. This may have the effect of increasing vaccination rates, both by increasing awareness amongst treat-
ing physicians and by bolstering the strength of evidence behind recommendations from professional societies.
The burden of influenza-related morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer is expected to rise, consequent
OPEN
1
Department of Radiation Oncology, Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University Irving
Medical Center, 622 West 168th Street, BNH B011, New York, NY
10032, USA.
2
Virtualitics Inc, 225 S. Lake Avenue
Suite 120, Pasadena, CA
91101, USA.
3
California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Blvd., Pasadena,
CA 91125, USA.
4
Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center, Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons,
Columbia University Irving Medical Center, 1130 St Nicholas Ave, New York, NY
10032, USA.
*
email: sc3225@
cumc.columbia.edu
2
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to an aging population and an increase in cancer
prevalence
20
. It is, therefore, important to address this growing
and potentially preventable problem.
In this ecological study, we explore the relationship between regional influenza activity and non-small cell
lung cancer (NSCLC) mortality rates across several flu seasons in the United States. We hypothesized that
patients with lung cancer would be susceptible to influenza-related mortality, given that both disease processes
have pulmonary tropism. We used population-level data on influenza-like illness (ILI) provided by the Center
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) mortality provided by the
National Cancer Institute’s (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Combining
these two datasets, we were able to achieve spatiotemporal resolution at the state-month level.
Methods
Data sources
The SEER Program is the NCI’s authoritative source for population-based cancer incidence and survival in
the U.S.
21
. It is also considered the gold standard for cancer data collection
internationally
22
. Data is populated
from national cancer registries in 13 contributing states and encompasses approximately 34.6% of the U.S.
population
23
–
25
. Mortality data reported to SEER is provided by the National Center for Health Statistics. The
SEER Program is updated annually for follow-up on vital status and routinely undergoes quality-control checks.
Data were collected and analyzed as previously
reported
26
–
34
.
FluView Interactive is a dashboard produced by the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch in the Influenza
Division at the
CDC
35
. The U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) consists of more
than 3500 providers in 50 states who report more than 47 million patient visits per year.
This study was exempt from review by the Columbia University Institutional Review Board.
Sample selection and coding
The SEER database was queried (November, 2017 submission, including data from 1973 to 2015)
36
to identify all
cases of
NSCLC
37
within the lung and bronchus, diagnosed between October 1, 2008 and December 31, 2015.
AJCC 6th Edition Staging was the most modern staging system that was uniformly available for all
patients
38
,
39
. Percent of persons below the poverty level, median household income, normalized cost of living index, and
rural urban continuum are recorded at the county level in which the individual patient resides. Cases diagnosed
at autopsy or that could have 0 days of follow-up, cases with prior malignancies, and cases with unknown AJCC
Staging were
excluded
40
.
ILI activity level is provided at the state level for each week of the year. Weekly ILI activity levels were averaged
during each month. The CDC and SEER datasets were then merged at the state-month level.
Primary measurements and outcomes
ILI is defined as a fever (temperature of 100 °F [37.8 °C] or greater) and a cough and/or sore throat without a
known cause other than influenza. ILI activity is calculated based on the regional percentage of patient visits for
ILI reported during each week. Activity levels compare the mean reported percent of ILI visits for a given week
with the mean reported percent of visits during non-influenza weeks. ILI activity levels range from 1 to 10, with
an activity level of 1 corresponding to values below the mean, 2 corresponding to values within one standard
deviation of the mean, and each level above 2 corresponding to an additional standard deviations above the mean.
Activity levels of 8–10 are considered high (hereafter referred to as high flu months). Overall mortality rate was
defined as the number of patients with NSCLC who died of any cause within a given month, divided by the total
number of patients at risk of death. One-month mortality rate was defined as the number of patients who were
newly diagnosed with NSCLC and died of any cause within a given calendar month, divided by the total number
of patients who were newly diagnosed and at risk of death during that same month.
Statistical analysis
In this ecological study,
bootstrapping
41
was used to determine the distributions of both overall and one-month
mortality rates. For each state and month, a sample was drawn—with replacement—from the raw mortality data,
with the number of samples equal to the number of cases in the state in that month. A sample mortality rate was
then calculated using the data across all months and states, for both low and high flu groups. This process was
then repeated 10,000 times in order to determine the distribution of mortality rate. The 95% confidence intervals
(95% CI) for the mortality rates were determined by taking the middle 95% of the sampled mortality rates. To
calculate the relative risk (RR) and its 95% CI, the sampled mortality rates for the high flu group was divided by
the sampled mortality rate of the low flu group. In addition, the 95% CI of the low flu group was determined by
dividing the mortality rate from 10,000 samples of the high flu group by an additional 10,000 samples of mortality
rate from the low flu group. All statistical analyses were conducted using Python Version 3.5.5 (Python Software
Foundation, Delaware, United States) and the NumPy
module
42
.
Results
Patient selection and characteristics
Our initial query identified 282,795 patients with a diagnosis of NSCLC (Supplemental Fig. 1). After applying
our exclusion criteria, there were 202,485 cases remaining. Median follow-up and survival times were 8 and
11 months, respectively, with 141,651 deaths. Pneumonia and influenza was listed as the cause of death in 0.4%
(
n
= 592) of all death certificates (Supplemental Table 1). Demographical and clinical features of patients are dis-
played in Table
1
. The majority of patients lived in metropolitan areas (85.5%) with greater than 1,000,000 people
(57.2%). California and Georgia accounted for the largest proportion of patients (33.4 and 12.7%, respectively),
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while fewer patient records were collected from Alaska (274 [0.1%]), Utah (2373 [1.2%]), Hawaii (3113 [1.5%]),
and New Mexico (3487 [1.7%]).
Distribution of high flu months
1041 state-months were observed from the 13 SEER-reporting states, 53 (5.1%) of which were considered high flu
months. The distribution of high flu months throughout the study period is illustrated in Fig.
1
. 2009 contained
the highest proportion of high flu months (24/52), followed by 2013 (8/52). High activity flu months generally
Table 1.
Patient demographical and clinical characteristics.
Count
%
Age
0–65
78,316
38.7
65+
124,169
61.3
Sex
Female
95,146
47.0
Male
107,339
53.0
Race
American Indian/Alaska Native
1041
0.5
Asian or Pacific Islander
14,672
7.2
Black
25,013
12.4
White
161,346
79.7
Unknown
413
0.2
AJCC 6th stage
I
44,477
22.0
II
9329
4.6
III
49,841
24.6
IV
96,769
47.8
Occult
2069
1.0
Cancer-directed surgery
No surgery
154,732
76.4
Surgery
46,754
23.1
Unknown
999
0.5
Population size
< 250,000
46,065
22.7
250,000–1,000,000
40,329
19.9
Greater than 1,000,000
115,801
57.2
Unknown
290
0.1
Population type
Rural
4017
2.0
Urban
25,096
12.4
Metropolitan
173,082
85.5
Unknown/other
290
0.1
State
Alaska
274
0.1
California
68,239
33.7
Connecticut
10,282
5.1
Georgia
25,760
12.7
Hawaii
3113
1.5
Iowa
9057
4.5
Kentucky
18,703
9.2
Louisiana
14,512
7.2
Michigan
13,035
6.4
New Jersey
22,686
11.2
New Mexico
3487
1.7
Utah
2373
1.2
Washington
10,964
5.4
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occurred between October and February. Louisiana had the highest proportion of high flu months (18.8%),
followed by Georgia (12.0%, Table
2
).
Influenza activity and mortality rate
The overall monthly mortality rate for all patients was 0.042 deaths per person at risk. The Supplemental Video
shows a time-lapsed map of the United States with ILI activity and mortality rates for each SEER-reporting
state. During low and high flu months, the monthly mortality rates were 0.041 (95% CI 0.041–0.042) and 0.051
(95% CI 0.050–0.053), respectively (RR 1.24 [95% CI 1.21–1.27], Fig.
2
). To account for regional differences
in patient characteristics and mortality
rates
43
, we examined the relationship between influenza activity and
NSCLC mortality at the individual state level (Fig.
3
). In 9 out of 13 states, there was a statistically significant
association between influenza activity and mortality rate, versus 1 state (Connecticut) in which the mortality
rate during high flu months was significantly lower. In the states with the largest populations (California and
Georgia), the RR for mortality during high versus low flu months were 1.54 (95% CI 1.44–1.64) and 1.24 (95%
CI 1.18–1.30), respectively.
We further examined the relationship between influenza activity and mortality in subgroups based on clinical
and regional factors (Fig.
4
). In all clinical subgroups, there was a significantly higher mortality rate during high
flu months (Fig.
4
A), with the exception of American Indian/Alaska Natives, for which there were exceptionally
few cases available (0.5% of total population). There was also a significantly higher mortality rate in all regional
subgroups (Fig.
4
B). The RR for mortality during high versus low flu months increased incrementally based on
the percentage of persons below the poverty line. The RR for mortality was 1.17 (95% CI 1.11–1.24), 1.22 (95%
CI 1.15–1.28), 1.24 (95% CI 1.18–1.30), and 1.24 (95% CI 1.19–1.29) for Quartiles 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively.
Figure 1.
Distribution of high flu months over the study period. Y-axis corresponds to the total number of
states with high ILI activity during a given month and year.
Table 2.
Distribution of high flu months by state.
State
Low flu months
High flu months
% high flu months
Alaska
78
2
2.6
California
79
2
2.5
Connecticut
72
2
2.8
Georgia
75
9
12.0
Hawaii
78
4
5.1
Iowa
77
1
1.3
Kentucky
78
2
2.6
Louisiana
69
13
18.8
Michigan
82
1
1.2
New Jersey
78
4
5.1
New Mexico
74
5
6.8
Utah
77
6
7.8
Washington
71
2
2.8
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Sensitivity analysis
The majority of high flu month occurred during winter months (Fig.
1
). To rule out that the association between
influenza activity and mortality was due to a general increase in mortality during winter months, and not specific
to influenza, we analyzed the relationship between influenza activity and mortality in winter and non-winter
months separately. During winter and non-winter months, the RRs for mortality during high versus low flu
months were 1.07 (95% CI 1.03–1.10) and 1.61 (95% CI 1.54–1.67), respectively (Supplemental Fig. 2).
To minimize the influence of time on the outcome of interest, we performed a sensitivity analysis for the
secondary outcome of one-month mortality. The 1-month mortality rates during low and high flu months were
0.094 (95% CI 0.093–0.095) and 0.102 (95% CI 0.096–0.109) deaths per persons diagnosed, respectively, with an
RR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.03–1.13) during high flu months (Supplemental Fig. 3). We further examined the relation-
ship between influenza activity and one-month mortality during winter and non-winter months (Supplemental
Fig. 4), at the state level, and after stratifying by clinical and regional subgroups, as described previously (Sup-
plemental Fig. 5). Qualitatively, our main findings were not substantially changed. However, there was no longer
an incremental increase in the RR of mortality during high flu months as the percentage of persons below the
poverty line increased.
Ethical statement
This study was exempt from review by the Columbia University Institutional Review Board.
Figure 2.
Overall monthly mortality rates during low and high flu months.
Figure 3.
Risk ratio for overall mortality rate during high flu months (
A
,
B
). (
A
) Map of SEER-reporting states
in the U.S. Low flu months are represented by blue bars. High flu months are represented by red bars. Squares
and circles represent risk ratio of overall and one-month (see methods) mortality rates, respectively. Height
corresponds to RR of mortality during high vs. low flu months. Width of bars corresponds to the number of
cases available for analysis. (
B
) Dotted line intersects x-axis at one. Error bars represent 95% confidence interval.
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Conference presentation
A preliminary version of this study was presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting
2019 (May 31–June 4, 2019, Chicago, Illinois) as an abstract.
Discussion
In this ecological study, we found that regional NSCLC mortality rates in the United States were higher during
months with high ILI activity. This relationship was observed at the individual state-level and in all clinical and
regional subgroups. We found an incremental increase in the relative risk of mortality with increasing percentages
of patients below the poverty line. This may be due to lower vaccination rates in lower income
communities
1
,
15
,
44
.
Figure 4.
Risk ratio for overall mortality rate during high flu months in subgroups stratified by individual
patient (
A
) and regional (
B
) clinical and demographical features. Dotted line intersects x-axis at one. Error bars
represent 95% confidence interval.
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Previous research has found negligible fluctuations in seasonal mortality rates for patients with lung cancer
or other
malignancies
45
,
46
. Although influenza seasons generally occur between November and March, our
ability to detect differences in mortality rates during high and low flu months is likely due to the spatiotemporal
resolution of our study at the state-month level.
Several older, smaller retrospective case series have suggested that influenza frequency and morbidity is higher
in patients with cancer, though the majority of these studies have focused on hematological
malignancies
5
,
6
. There
are fewer studies that report influenza-related outcomes in patients with solid malignancies and data suggests
that outcomes are better for patients with solid
cancers
7
,
8
. To our knowledge, there is only one population-based
study that examines influenza-related cancer
outcomes
7
. Using data from the National Inpatient Sample, Cooksley
et al. found that patients with cancer who were hospitalized for influenza-related illness have a longer length of
stay, higher cost of hospitalization, and higher mortality rate than that of the general population. The mortality
rate for hospitalized cancer patients was 9%. Several other studies, including one large multicenter retrospec-
tive and one large prospective study, have reported similar mortality rates in hospitalized cancer
patients
9
–
11
.
Among patients with cancer, the mortality rate was highest for those with lung cancer, reaching 12.4%. The study
concluded that patients with cancer that were hospitalized with influenza-related infections are 10 times more
likely to die than the general population.
By assuming that all excess deaths that occurred during high flu months were due to influenza infection,
we can approximate that 1.2% of deaths in our cohort were attributable to influenza infections. By comparison,
pneumonia and influenza was listed as the cause of death in 0.4% of patients in our cohort, based on death cer
-
tificate records. This discrepancy is expected, as it is known that influenza-related deaths, based solely on death
certificate records, is a gross underestimation of the seasonal influenza’s true
impact
47
,
48
.
Two studies, one retrospective and one prospective, have shown reduced influenza and pneumonia diagno
-
ses, chemotherapy interruptions, and mortality in patients with solid malignancies who are
vaccinated
9
,
15
. A
Cochran Systematic Review concluded that the benefits outweigh the potential risks when vaccinating adults
with cancer against
influenza
13
. Additionally, two studies have demonstrated cost-effectiveness of vaccination
in patients with cancer based on analytical
modeling
49
,
50
. A U.S. study concluded that influenza vaccination is
cost-effective for working-age cancer patients with a life expectancy greater than 2.8
months
50
. Given that the
median survival times for all stages and stage IV patients with NSCLC are 11 and 4 months,
respectively
51
, it
appears that vaccination would be a cost-effective strategy in any working-age patient with NSCLC.
Despite recommendations from professional societies to vaccinate patients with cancer annually, vaccination
rates remain low in the U.S. and around the
world
9
,
14
–
16
,
52
. In the U.S., only 40% of elderly patients with colo
-
rectal cancer received influenza
vaccination
15
. Several studies have shown that the main reason for absence of
vaccination in patients with cancer is a lack of incitation by the treating
physician
16
,
18
. Virtually every study that
examined vaccination rates in patients with cancer concluded that increased awareness amongst practitioners
was necessary to improve vaccination
rates
14
,
16
,
18
,
19
,
52
.
Advantages of the methodology used in this study include the use of large datasets with a population-based
approach, representing 34.6% of U.S. patients with cancer. Additionally, it is the first study to assess regional
influenza activity and lung cancer mortality over several influenza seasons. The CDC and the SEER program
are the two most robust surveillance systems in the U.S. for influenza outbreaks and cancer mortality statistics,
respectively. SEER is considered the international gold-standard for population research when measuring cancer
incidence and mortality. Mortality is recorded from death certificates, which are linked to individual patient
records via their social security numbers. Therefore, our primary outcome should be highly reliable.
Limitations
A greater proportion of high flu months occurred during 2009, corresponding to the H1N1 pandemic. Because
patients at risk of death during the 2009 pandemic would have shorter follow-up times, they may have had
higher mortality rates, irrespective of influenza activity. To account for this, we also analyzed the one-month
mortality rates.
Although the ILI activity metric is based on an expansive surveillance system, it is known that less than half
of patients with influenza symptoms present to their providers. Furthermore, ILI activity is based on presenting
symptoms, not laboratory-confirmed influenza, which is the gold-standard for diagnosis. Some ILI visits may
have been caused by other respiratory
viruses
53
.
Variations in the effect of ILI by state were estimated based on a limited number of observations and should
be interpreted with caution. Additionally, differences in ecological conditions, such as patient populations, local
policies, access to care, outbreak dynamics, and other confounders may affect the outcome.
Conclusions
Regional ILI activity is associated with higher mortality rates for NSCLC patients in the U.S. This is the first
population-based study to estimate the effects of regional influenza activity on mortality rates in patients with
lung cancer over multiple flu seasons. Limitations notwithstanding, our study addresses the sparsity of data on
influenza-related outcomes in patients with cancer. These findings may be used to: (1) Bolster evidence sup-
porting professional guidelines for annual influenza vaccination in patients with cancer, (2) Estimate influenza-
related mortality in patients with lung cancer in the U.S., (3) Project mortality in upcoming flu seasons based on
predicted influenza activity, (4) Estimate cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in patients with lung cancer.
Influenza is a major source of cancer-associated morbidity and mortality in the U.S. Vaccine-directed initiatives
and increased awareness amongst providers will be necessary to address the growing but potentially preventable
burden of influenza-related cancer deaths.
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Data availability
Data is available upon request to the National Cancer Institute and Center for Disease Control, but restrictions
apply to the availability of these data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly
available. Permissions can be obtained through the SEER website (
https://
seer.
cancer.
gov/
data/
access.
html
).
Received: 14 August 2023; Accepted: 9 November 2023
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Author contributions
C.J.K.: Conceptualization, study design, data acquisition, data analysis, oversight of analysis, interpretation of
data, writing, editing. Y.W.: Study design, data acquisition, data analysis, oversight of analysis, interpretation
of data, writing, editing. Y.L.: Data acquisition. K.M.Z.: Data analysis, oversight of analysis, interpretation of
data. K.R.C.: Oversight of analysis, interpretation of data. T.J.C.W.: Oversight of analysis, interpretation of data,
editing, administrative support and oversight. C.D.: Study design, oversight of analysis, interpretation of data,
administrative support and oversight. M.A.: Oversight of analysis, interpretation of data, administrative sup-
port and oversight. S.K.C.: Conceptualization, study design, oversight of analysis, interpretation of data, editing,
administrative support and oversight.
Competing interests
Dr. Cheng reported receiving grants from Janssen and travel funding from Caris outside the submitted work.
Dr. Wang reports personal fees and non-financial support from AbbVie, personal fees from Cancer Panels, per
-
sonal fees from Doximity, personal fees and non-financial support from Elekta, personal fees and non-financial
support from Merck, personal fees and non-financial support from Novocure, personal fees and non-financial
support from RTOG Foundation, personal fees from Wolters Kluwer, grants and non-financial support from
Genentech, grants and non-financial support from Varian, personal fees from Iylon Precision Oncology, outside
the submitted work. No other authors have financial conflicts of interest.
Additional information
Supplementary Information
The online version contains supplementary material available at
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10. 1038/ s41598- 023- 47173-x
.
Correspondence
and requests for materials should be addressed to S.K.C.
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