Welcome to the new version of CaltechAUTHORS. Login is currently restricted to library staff. If you notice any issues, please email coda@library.caltech.edu
Published April 30, 1996 | Published
Journal Article Open

Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science


Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake.

Additional Information

© 1996 National Academy of Sciences. This paper was presented at a colloquium entitled "Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge," organized by Leon Knopoff (Chair), Keiiti Aki, Clarence R. Allen, James R. Rice, and Lynn R. Sykes, held February 10 and 11, 1995, at the National Academy of Sciences in Irvine, CA.

Attached Files

Published - PNAS-1996-Jones-3721-5.pdf


Files (1.1 MB)
Name Size Download all
1.1 MB Preview Download

Additional details

August 20, 2023
August 20, 2023