Welcome to the new version of CaltechAUTHORS. Login is currently restricted to library staff. If you notice any issues, please email coda@library.caltech.edu
Published March 4, 2016 | Accepted Version + Submitted
Report Open

External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery


We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters — in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure for estimation, and estimate models of instrumental voting, altruistic voting, expressive voting, and ethical voting. All the models except the ethical model recover the concealed parameters reasonably well. We also report the results of a counterfactual analysis based on the recovered parameters, to compare the policy implications of the different models about the cost of a subsidy to increase turnout.

Additional Information

February 2013. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Science Foundation (SES-0079301, SES-0450712, SES-0094800) and the California Social Science Experimental Laboratory. We thank seminar and conference participants at several institutions for their useful comments and suggestions. Anna Bassi and Claire Lim provided excellent research assistance.

Attached Files

Accepted Version - sswp1370.pdf

Submitted - sSWP_1370.pdf


Files (475.0 kB)
Name Size Download all
254.2 kB Preview Download
220.8 kB Preview Download

Additional details

August 19, 2023
January 13, 2024