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Published January 2022 | Supplemental Material + Published
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The Modeling Study about Impacts of Emission Control Policies for Chinese 14th Five-Year Plan on PM_(2.5) and O₃ in Yangtze River Delta, China


The Chinese government has made great efforts to combat air pollution through the reductions in SO₂, NOₓ and VOCs emissions, as part of its socioeconomic Five-Year Plans (FYPs). China aims to further reduce the emissions of VOCs and NOₓ by 10% in its upcoming 14th FYP (2021–2025). Here, we used a regional chemical transport model (e.g., WRF/CMAQ) to examine the responses of PM_(2.5) and O₃ to emission control policies of the 14th FYP in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. The simulation results under the 4 emission control scenarios in the 2 winter months in 2025 indicate that the average concentrations of city mean PM_(2.5) in 41 cities in the YRD were predicted to only decrease by 10% under both S1 and S1_E scenarios, whereas the enhanced emission control scenarios (i.e., S2_E and S3_E) could reduce PM_(2.5) in each city by more than 20%. The model simulation results for O₃ in the 3 summer months in 2025 show that the O₃ responses to the emission controls under the S1 and S1_E scenarios show different control effects on O₃ concentrations in the YRD with the increase and decrease effects, respectively. The study found that both enhanced emission control scenarios (S2_E and S3_E) could decrease O₃ in each city by more than 20% with more reductions in O₃ under the S3_E emission control scenario because of its higher control strengths for both NOx and VOCs emissions. It was found that emission reduction policies for controlling high emission sectors of NOₓ and VOCs such as S2_E and S3_E were more effective for decreasing both PM_(2.5) and O₃ in the YRD. This study shows that O₃ controls will benefit from well-designed air pollution control strategies for reasonable control ratios of NOₓ and VOCs emissions.

Additional Information

© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Received: 30 November 2021 / Revised: 20 December 2021 / Accepted: 22 December 2021 / Published: 25 December 2021. (This article belongs to the Special Issue Photochemical Air Pollution in Urban Regions) This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 42175084, 21577126 and 41561144004),Department of Science and Technology of China (Nos. 2018YFC0213506, 2018YFC0213503, and 2016YFC0202702,), and National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control in China (No. DQGG0107). Part of this work was also supported by the "Zhejiang 1000 Talent Plan" and Research Center for Air Pollution and Health in Zhejiang University. Pengfei Li is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 22006030), Initiation Fund for Introducing Talents of Hebei Agricultural University (412201904), and Hebei Youth Top Q15 Fund (BJ2020032). Author Contributions. S.Y. and Z.L. designed this study and wrote the manuscript. Z.L. and S.Y. contributed to observations and data analyses, M.L., X.C., Y.Z., Z.S., J.L., Y.J., W.L., P.L. and X.Z. contributed to the discussions. S.Y. contributed to the manuscript and supervised the research. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable. Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable. Data Availability Statement. No new data were created or analyzed in this study. Data sharing is not applicable to this article. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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August 22, 2023
October 23, 2023