Policy Moderation Qr Conflicting Expectations? Testing The Intentional Models of Split-Ticket Voting

In this paper we examine two models of the electoral origins of divided government. One model is the policy-moderation model, advocated originally by Fiorina (1988, 1992). The other model focuses on the different expectations held by the electorate of the branches of government, as well as the different electoral contexts (congressional and presidential) in which voter decision making occurs (Jacobson 1990A, 1990B). Utilizing individual-level survey data, we test various hypotheses derived from each model. Our empirical results give little support to the policy-moderation model. However, the second model has strong empirical support. We conclude with a discussion of our results for empirical and normative studies of divided control of government.