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Published October 13, 2005 | Supplemental Material
Journal Article Open

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake


Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

Additional Information

© 2005 Nature Publishing Group. Received 28 January 2005; Accepted 10 July 2005. The Parkfield experiment has served as a model for the collaboration of federal and state agencies with researchers in academia and industry, and many, far too numerous to list here, have contributed to its successes. In particular, J. Davis, J. Filson, A. Lindh and T. McEvilly made the experiment happen. We thank T. Hanks, S. Hough, D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, A. Lindh, M. Rymer, W. Thatcher, D. Wald and M. L. Zoback for their comments and suggestions and L. Blair, J. Boatwright, M. Huang, and D. Wald for technical assistance.

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Supplemental Material - nature04067-s1.pdf

Supplemental Material - nature04067-s2.pdf

Supplemental Material - nature04067-s3.pdf

Supplemental Material - nature04067-s4.pdf

Supplemental Material - nature04067-s5.doc


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