Dynamics of episodic supershear in the 2023 M7.8 Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake, revealed by near-field records and computational modeling
Abstract
The 2023 M7.8 Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake was larger and more destructive than what had been expected. Here we analyzed nearfield seismic records and developed a dynamic rupture model that reconciles different currently conflicting inversion results and reveals spatially non-uniform propagation speeds in this earthquake, with predominantly supershear speeds observed along the Narli fault and at the southwest (SW) end of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). The model highlights the critical role of geometric complexity and heterogeneous frictional conditions in facilitating continued propagation and influencing rupture speed. We also constrained the conditions that allowed for the rupture to jump from the Narli fault to EAF and to generate the delayed backpropagating rupture towards the SW. Our findings have important implications for understanding earthquake hazards and guiding future response efforts and demonstrate the value of physics based dynamic modeling fused with near-field data in enhancing our understanding of earthquake mechanisms and improving risk assessment.
Copyright and License
© The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank associate editor Carolina Ortiz Guerrero, Eric Dunham and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments that improved this manuscript. The ground motion data used in this study can be obtained from Turkish Disaster and Emergency Managment Authority AFAD, US Geological Survey (USGS), and Kandilli Observatory And Earthquake Research Institute. We would like to thank the Turkish Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) for setting up dense near-fault observatories, and for immediately publishing a huge number of openly accessible accelerometers during these trying times for Türkiye. A.J.R. acknowledges support by the Caltech/MCE Big Ideas Fund (BIF), as well as the Caltech Terrestrial Hazard Observation and Reporting Center (THOR). He would also like to acknowledge the support of NSF (Grant EAR-2045285). A.E. acknowledges support from the Southern California Earthquake Center through a collaborative agreement between NSF. Grant Number: EAR0529922 and USGS. Grant Number: 07HQAG0008 and the National Science Foundation CAREER award No. 1753249 for modeling complex fault zone structures. We are grateful to Idaho National Lab for providing High performance computing support and access and for the MOOSE/Falcon team for offering technical support. Funding provided by DOE EERE Geothermal Technologies Office to Utah FORGE and the University of Utah under Project DE-EE0007080 Enhanced Geothermal System Concept Testing and Development at the Milford City, Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (Utah FORGE) site.
Acknowledgement
The mapped surface rupture data are from https://doi.org/10.5066/P985I7U217. All the ground motion records used in this study are obtained from AFAD2. Fig. 1 was produced using QGIS based on map data from Natural Earth.
Code Availability
The software used to conduct the dynamic rupture model and input files required to reproduce the results presented in this manuscript is available on github (https://github.com/chunhuizhao478/farmscode.git).
Contributions
These authors contributed equally: Mohamed Abdelmeguid, Chunhui Zhao.
M.A.: led the study, performed the station analysis, participated in the dynamic rupture modeling; designed the figures and tables; participated in the interpretation of the results; wrote the original draft. C.Z.: performed the dynamic rupture modeling; designed the figures and tables; participated in the interpretation of the results; wrote the original draft. E.Y.: performed seismic station analysis; participated in the interpretation of the results; wrote original draft. G.G.: performed seismic station analysis; participated in the interpretation of the results; wrote the original draft. A.E. & A. R.: concieved and supervised the study and wrote original draft. All authors contributed to finalize the manuscript.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
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Additional details
- Caltech Terrestrial Hazard Observation and Reporting Center
- National Science Foundation
- EAR-0529922
- United States Geological Survey
- 07HQAG0008
- National Science Foundation
- EAR-2045285
- California Institute of Technology
- MCE Big Ideas Fund
- National Science Foundation
- EAR-1753249
- United States Department of Energy
- DE-EE0007080
- Caltech groups
- GALCIT