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Published September 4, 2009 | public
Journal Article

Tsunami hazard from the subduction megathrust of the South China Sea: Part I. Source characterization and the resulting tsunami


The subduction megathrust under the Manila Trench has been accumulating strain over a period of 440 years or more, and could be the source for a giant earthquake of M_w ~ 9. We present a plausible earthquake rupture model constructed from seismic and geodetic data, together with hydrodynamic simulations of the potential tsunami with COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami model). Results indicate that this megathrust poses a risk of devastating tsunami for the Philippines, southern China, Vietnam and other population centers bordering the South China Sea.

Additional Information

© 2008 Elsevier. Received 5 May 2008; revised 24 November 2008; accepted 25 November 2008. Available online 14 December 2008. This work is funded by the National Environmental Agency, Singapore. The opinions described in this paper are of the authors and may not necessarily reflect the standing of the funding agency. The authors would also like to thank Professor Philip L.-F. Liu of Cornell University for providing the latest version of COMCOT used in the present study and also for coordinating this special issue. This is Contribution No. 2 of Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University.

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August 21, 2023
October 19, 2023