We investigate the long-term persistence of solar energetic particle (SEP) time series by means of four different methods: Hurst rescaled range R/S analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis, centered moving average analysis, and the fluctuation of natural time under the time reversal method. For these analyses, we use data sets from the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun instrument suite on board NASA's Parker Solar Probe. Background systematic noise is modeled using cross-correlation analysis between different SEP energy channels and subtracted from the original data. The use of these four methods for deriving the time-series persistence allows us to (i) differentiate between quiet- and active-Sun periods based on the values of the corresponding self-similarity exponents alone; (ii) identify the onset of an ongoing activity well before it reaches its maximum SEP flux; (iii) reveal an interesting fine structure when activity is observed; and (iv) provide, for the first time, an estimate of the maximum SEP flux of a future storm based on the entropy change of natural time under time reversal.
Published July 1, 2024
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Persistent Behavior in Solar Energetic Particle Time Series
Abstract
Copyright and License
© 2024. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Acknowledgement
We acknowledge support through PSP/IS⊙IS funding (PSP/ISOIS – Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun AWD 1004920 NASA#136435). PSP is a part of NASA's Living with a Star (LWS) program (contract NNN06AA01C).
Software References
dfa.c (Peng et al. 1994, 1995; Goldberger et al. 2000), TISEAN package (Hegger et al. 1999; Kantz & Schreiber 2004), R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Core Team 2013), psych (William 2024)
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Additional details
- ISSN
- 1538-4357
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- 136435
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- NNN06AA01C
- Caltech groups
- Space Radiation Laboratory