Looking Back From the Year 3,000

Abstract

Many people have asked me how I can justify living with the earthquake threat in the Los Angeles area. My answer is usually that we have some reasonably strict building codes and that the threat of earthquakes to life safety is minimized if our buildings survive our coming quakes. The current building code calls for buildings to sustain at most repairable damage from the strongest shaking that is anticipated with a 10% probability in 50 years. If the building is a critical structure, such as a hospital, then the requirement is increased to 10% in 100 years. Furthermore, buildings of both classes should not collapse for the strongest ground shaking that can be anticipated at the location of the building. If the building code works as it's supposed to, then we endure far greater risks from other factors than from earthquakes.

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