On the Retrospective Effect of Economic Conditions in Congressional Elections: A Simultaneous Equation Model Approach

In this paper, a simultaneous equation model is employed to investigate the relative effects of: (1) economic conditions, (2) incumbency, and (3) recognition of the presidential party's candidate on the dual decisions of the individuals to participate and vote in congressional elections. My finding is decidedly negative regarding the effect of economic conditions on both turnout and voting for the presidential party. I have, however, established the relative effects of both incumbency and recognition.