The future of oil

Abstract

Time to look again at the oil situation. How much did nature make for us and how much is left? A simple extrapolation of pumping rates suggests about two trillion barrels, with just over one trillion barrels left in the ground. That's a 40-year supply at current rates of consumption, but that may be the wrong way to look at it. We're close to the half-way point, the point at which the rate of extraction of oil ought to start declining — but demand continues to increase, especially in China and India. There may be hard times ahead.

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