Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Response to Mid-Holocene Orbital Forcing and Greenhouse Gas-Induced Global Warming
Precipitation and circulation patterns of Northern Hemisphere monsoons are investigated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations for mid‐Holocene and future climate scenario rcp8.5. Although both climates exhibit Northern Hemisphere warming and enhanced interhemispheric thermal contrast in boreal summer, changes in the spatial extent and rainfall intensity in future climate are smaller than in mid‐Holocene for all Northern Hemisphere monsoons except the Indian monsoon. A decomposition of the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic contributions suggests that under future global warming, the weaker response of the African, Indian, and North American monsoons results from a compensation between both components. The dynamic component, primarily constrained by changes in net energy input over land, determines instead most of the mid‐Holocene land monsoonal rainfall response.
Additional Information© 2019 American Geophysical Union. Received 2 AUG 2018; Accepted 5 JAN 2019; Accepted article online 16 JAN 2019; Published online 1 FEB 2019. This study was supported by the JPI ‐ Belmont Forum's project PaCMEDy ‐ Paleo Constraint on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics. R. D. conceived and designed the study, analyzed the simulations, and prepared the manuscript. All authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and the writing of the manuscript. We thank F. S. R. Pausata and Thomas Raddatz for their advice and comments on the draft. We want to acknowledge Nora Specht for her advice on transient eddy computation for the IPSL model. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. PMIP3 and CMIP5 data are available at https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cmip5-dkrz/. Scripts used in the analysis and other supporting information useful to reproduce the author's work are archived by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and can be obtained contacting firstname.lastname@example.org.
Supplemental Material - grl58503-sup-0002-text_si-s01.pdf