Single-well based control and optimization of hydraulic stimulation and induced seismicity: Application to the Otaniemi geothermal project
Abstract
In this study, we apply control theory to mitigate earthquake hazards to a stress-based model of enhanced geothermal stimulation. The model considers pore pressure diffusion as the main stressing mechanism and rate-and-state friction as the shear failure mechanism. The controller is designed to follow a given average pressure and the probability of exceedance of a red-light earthquake (the magnitude at which the stimulation would have to stop by regulation) within chosen volumes surrounding the injection source and within a target time. We rigorously prove that the proposed controller can effectively force two output types within the system to given references, despite the presence of model uncertainties, and with minimal system information, using a continuous control signal. This framework is applied to a validated model of the 2018 Otaniemi geothermal stimulation. We use a suite of simulations to identify injection scenarios that outperform the 2018 Otaniemi stimulation. The optimal stimulation achieves higher average pressure in a shorter time with lower seismic hazard. The controller can help determine whether a combination of safety thresholds and optimization targets is feasible and economical. The control framework could be used to design stimulation schedules for enhanced geothermal systems.
Copyright and License
© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Acknowledgement
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Additional details
- European Research Council
- European Union
- 101087771
- Centre Pays de la Loire
- Connect Talent programme -
- National Science Foundation
- RISE-1822214
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- P2ELP2_195127
- Resnick Sustainability Institute
- Accepted
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2025-05-16
- Available
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2025-06-25Available online
- Available
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2025-06-25Version of record
- Caltech groups
- Center for Geomechanics and Mitigation of Geohazards (GMG), Resnick Sustainability Institute, Seismological Laboratory, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences (GPS)
- Publication Status
- Published