Directly observing exoplanets with coronagraphs is impeded by the presence of speckles from aberrations in the optical path, which can be mitigated in hardware with wave front control, as well as in post-processing. This work explores using an instrument model in post-processing to separate astrophysical signals from residual aberrations in coronagraphic data. The effect of wave front error (WFE) on the coronagraphic intensity consists of a linear contribution and a quadratic contribution. When either of the terms is much larger than the other, the instrument response can be approximated by a transfer matrix mapping WFE to detector plane intensity. From this transfer matrix, a useful projection onto instrumental modes that removes the dominant error modes can be derived. We apply this approach to synthetically generated Roman Space Telescope hybrid Lyot coronagraph data to extract "robust observables," which can be used instead of raw data for applications such as detection testing. The projection improves planet flux ratio detection limits by about 28% in the linear regime and by over a factor of 2 in the quadratic regime, illustrating that robust observables can increase sensitivity to astrophysical signals and improve the scientific yield from coronagraphic data. While this approach does not require additional information such as observations of reference stars or modulations of a deformable mirror, it can and should be combined with these other techniques, acting as a model-informed prior in an overall post-processing strategy.