CMEs and SEPs During November-December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting
- Creators
- Palmerio, Erika
- Lee, Christina O.
- Mays, M. Leila
- Luhmann, Janet G.
- Lario, David
- Sánchez-Cano, Beatriz
- Richardson, Ian G.
- Vainio, Rami
- Stevens, Michael L.
- Cohen, Christina M. S.
- Steinvall, Konrad
- Möstl, Christian
- Weiss, Andreas J.
- Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa
- Li, Yan
- Larson, Davin E.
- Heyner, Daniel
- Bale, Stuart D.
- Galvin, Antoinette B.
- Holmström, Mats
- Khotyaintsev, Yuri V.
- Maksimovic, Milan
- Mitrofanov, Igor G.
Abstract
Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360°" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble." We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.
Additional Information
© 2022. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Issue Online: 27 April 2022; Version of Record online: 27 April 2022; Accepted manuscript online: 08 April 2022; Manuscript accepted: 28 March 2022; Manuscript revised: 16 March 2022; Manuscript received: 30 November 2021. E. Palmerio's research was supported by the NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Jack Eddy Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science under award no. NNX16AK22G. C. O. Lee acknowledges support from the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Project subcontract via Grant Nos. NNH10CC04C, managed by the University of Colorado. C. O. Lee and J. G. Luhmann acknowledge support from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) Project via the STEREO/In situ Measurements of Particles And CME Transients (IMPACT) grant to UC Berkeley. D. Lario and I. G. Richardson acknowledge support from the NASA LWS programs NNH17ZDA001N-LWS and NNH19ZDA001N-LWS, as well as the Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Innovation Fund program. B. Sánchez-Cano acknowledges support through UK-STFC Ernest Rutherford Fellowship ST/V004115/1 and STFC Grants ST/S000429/1 and ST/V000209/1. K. Steinvall and Y. V. Khotyaintsev acknowledge support from the Swedish Research Council, Grant 2016-05507, and the Swedish National Space Agency, Grant 20/136. C. Möstl and A. J. Weiss thank the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): P31521-N27, P31659-N27. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model was developed by C. N. Arge (currently at NASA/GSFC), the Enlil model was developed by D. Odstrcil (currently at GMU), and the SEPMOD model was developed by J. Luhmann (currently at UCB). Finally, the authors thank the Mission Teams of all the spacecraft and instruments employed in this study. This work was supported by the NASA's Parker Solar Probe Mission, Contract No. NNN06AA01C. Parker Solar Probe was designed, built, and is now operated by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory as part of NASA's LWS program. Data Availability Statement: Simulation results have been provided by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at Goddard Space Flight Center through their public Runs on Request system (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). DONKI runs used in this study: CME1: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/16146/2. CME2: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/16172/1. CME3: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/16186/3. CME4: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/16204/2. CME5: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/16219/2. Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil-SEPMOD runs performed in this study: Run1: - Enlil: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_082921_SH_1. - SEPMOD (GOES-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_1. - SEPMOD (IMP8-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_2. Run2: - Enlil: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_082921_SH_2. - SEPMOD (GOES-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_3. - SEPMOD (IMP8-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_4. Run3: - Enlil: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_082921_SH_3. - SEPMOD (GOES-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_5. - SEPMOD (IMP8-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_6. Run4: - Enlil: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_082921_SH_4. - SEPMOD (GOES-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_7. - SEPMOD (IMP8-like): https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/results/viewrun.php?domain=SH&runnumber=Erika_Palmerio_090121_SH_8. Remote-sensing data from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) are openly available at the Virtual Solar Observatory (https://sdac.virtualsolar.org/). These data were processed and analyzed through SunPy (SunPy Community et al., 2020), IDL SolarSoft (Freeland & Handy, 1998), and the European Space Agency (ESA) JHelioviewer software (Müller et al., 2017). Parker Solar Probe (PSP), STEREO, Wind, and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) in situ data are publicly available at NASA's Coordinated Data Analysis Web database (https://cdaweb.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.html/). Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) data can be accessed at the Planetary Plasma Interactions Node of NASA's Planetary Data System (PDS; https://pds-ppi.igpp.ucla.edu). Mars Express (MEX) data are stored at ESA's Planetary Science Archive (PSA; https://archives.esac.esa.int/psa). Mars Odyssey (MOdy) data are available at the Geosciences Node of the PDS (https://pds-geosciences.wustl.edu/). SOHO particle data can be downloaded from the SOHO/Energetic and Relativistic Nuclei and Electron (ERNE) webpage (https://srl.utu.fi/projects/erne/). The BepiColombo data used in this study are stored at https://doi.org/10.25392/leicester.data.16941040, and the full mission data set will be released in the future at ESA's PSA. Solar Orbiter (SolO) data are openly available at ESA's SolO Archive (http://soar.esac.esa.int/soar/).Attached Files
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Additional details
- Eprint ID
- 114296
- Resolver ID
- CaltechAUTHORS:20220414-26083000
- NASA Postdoctoral Program
- NNX16AK22G
- NASA
- NNH10CC04C
- NASA
- NNH17ZDA001N-LWS
- NASA
- NNH19ZDA001N-LWS
- Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
- ST/V004115/1
- Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
- ST/S000429/1
- Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)
- ST/V000209/1
- Swedish Research Council
- 2016-05507
- Swedish National Space Agency
- 20/136
- FWF Der Wissenschaftsfonds
- P31521-N27
- FWF Der Wissenschaftsfonds
- P31659-N27
- NASA
- NNN06AA01C
- Created
-
2022-04-19Created from EPrint's datestamp field
- Updated
-
2022-05-11Created from EPrint's last_modified field
- Caltech groups
- Space Radiation Laboratory