Policy First or Science First: Two Approaches in the Management of Risk

This paper compares two approaches toward handling of uncertainty in public policy decisions. In one approach, "science first," scientific questions of fact are addressed first. Once it is concluded that there is a high probability that there is a problem (for example that a chemical is a carcinogen) then the analysis proceeds to value questions, where the costs and benefits of possible remedies are weighed. In the alternative approach, "policy first," value questions are addressed from the beginning. The potential costs and benefits of wrong decisions are considered from the start, along with judgments about the probabilities of false positives and false negatives. This analysis leads to the identification of the scientific uncertainties most critical for the public policy decision; it suggests the most important areas for research; and it guides decisions of what to do in the meantime, for precautionary actions. The discussion is undertaken in terms of a particular public policy problem, management of municipal wastewater disposal in coastal waters.