Published June 7, 2024 | Published
Journal Article Open

The reduced net carbon uptake over Northern Hemisphere land causes the close-to-normal CO₂ growth rate in 2021 La Niña

Abstract

La Niña climate anomalies have historically been associated with substantial reductions in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. However, the 2021 La Niña exhibited a unique near-neutral impact on the CO2 growth rate. In this study, we investigate the underlying mechanisms by using an ensemble of net CO2 fluxes constrained by CO2 observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 in conjunction with estimates of gross primary production and fire carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals that the close-to-normal atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2021 was the result of the compensation between increased net carbon uptake over the tropics and reduced net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Specifically, we identify that the extreme drought and warm anomalies in Europe and Asia reduced the net carbon uptake and offset 72% of the increased net carbon uptake over the tropics in 2021. This study contributes to our broader understanding of how regional processes can shape the trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration under climate change.

Copyright and License

© 2024 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

Funding

Part of the research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with NASA (80NM0018D0004). J.X. was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) (Macrosystem Biology & NEON-Enabled Science program: DEB-2017870). S.M.M. acknowledges the NASA funding support 80NSSC21K1073. F.C. would like to acknowledge the funding support from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission (grant: CAMS2 55 bis), and the HPC resources of TGCC under the allocation A0130102201 made by GENCI. M.S.J. acknowledges the internal funding from NASA’s Earth Science Research and Analysis Program.

Contributions

Conceptualization: J.L. Methodology: J.L., D.B., S.B., K.B., B.B., F.C., W.H., F.J., M.S.J., T.L.K., X.L., Z.L., S.M.M., S.P., J.X., and N.Z. Investigation: J.L., D.B., S.B., K.B., B.B., F.C., W.H., F.J., M.S.J., X.L., Z.L., S.M.M., S.P., J.X., and N.Z. Visualization: J.L. and J.Y. Writing—original draft: J.L. Writing—review and editing: All coauthors contributed to reviewing and editing.

Data Availability

All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. All the data sources are listed in table S2 and publicly available.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare they have no competing interests.

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Additional details

Created:
June 11, 2024
Modified:
June 17, 2024